(Cont)
Are forecast storm positions from NHC improving? Cone getting smaller if they are?
Yes!
That improvement rate is slowing though. Improving the science of Hurricanes will help.
7-day cone? One day! NHC is testing in house now but error at that range still too great to publish.
I'd appreciate it if one day we had two categorizations for hurricanes or other TSs. Like, cat 2 for wind but cat 5 for rain/flood. Harvey was no longer cat 4 in wind speed when it got to where I lived, but 50 inches of rain needed its own category. These flooding events are going to be the norm, and people still think riding out a cat 1 is no big deal.
@Agatha I think weβll get there one day. There are a few groups out there trying to come up with something like that now, with impacts broken down into their own rating systems.
Oh sweet! I hadn't seen anything yet. That's good to hear.
(Cont)
The cone size is set so that 66% of the previous 5 year errors in storm center point positions falls within that area at each forecast point.
2023 cone represents 5yr average error(in miles) of:
12hr: 30
24hr: 45
36hr: 61
48hr: 77
60hr: 93
72hr: 114
96hr: 167
120hr: 236
(Cont)