The DNC is over and Harris/Walz is the official dream team for Dem White House aspirations .
What kind of post-convention bump will they get in the polls?
@TheAbbotTrithemius 538.com says she has a 3.7% lead today. I expect that to rise to 5.5% by this time next week. Barely 2%, not because she’s done incredibly well (she has!) but because 90% of voters have now made up their mind. The last 5% won’t make up their minds until the weekend before Election Day, 11/05/24.
@TheAbbotTrithemius Clearly, I was very wrong in my prediction. #politics
I think her bump was already built in going into the DNC and it was massive. She moved the needle in a huge way from where Biden was at and her approval rating blows tfg out of the water.
That’s my theory. I expect her numbers to go up morr and her campaign people are brilliant and making sure she doesn’t peak before the election. They have so much fuel they’re sitting on…needs to be timed for blast off trajectory for maximum momentum on Nov 5th.
@TheAbbotTrithemius
Josh Marshall at TPM has a good take on something similar you said - maximum momentum.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/keep-an-eye-on-those-favorability-numbers /nosanitize
She will likely keep those numbers for two main reasons:
1. She doesn’t get into the slime pit with
are equals and have to answer to them as such.
2. She doesn’t try to play the media’s narrative that she and
https://open.substack.com/pub/aaronrupar/p/kamala-harris-strategy-for-dealing-with-trump /nosanitize
Play that game and combine it with a massive turnout machine? Clear advantage.