538 is so fucked I think.
Not in their methods but in the polls they're using as sources.
There's Rasmussen which has always been and extreme right organization and now what seems like a flood of GQP polling organizations proliferating:
Trafalgar
Insider Advantage
Landmark Communications
Are all run by GQP Trumpists. The CEO of Insider Advantage, Phil Kent, was a member of 2 anti-immigration groups the Southern Poverty Law Center identified as hate groups.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Kent
1
The owner of Landmark is Republican:
Mark Rountree a political consultant operating in the state of Georgia.
https://ballotpedia.org/Mark_Rountree
ANd Cygnal is also GOP run and contracted out:
They all over estimate repubs especially in the final week of an election creating a false sense of GOP momentum.
Yet another reason the aggregate polls aren't to be taken seriously.
18 to 26 yer olds and women come out to vote in significant numbers none of those polls will mean jack.