Every day: There is a 1 in 1 trillion chance that a gamma ray burst from a celestial event will kill every living thing on earth.
There is a 1 in a billion chance that an asteroid will kill 9/10 of humanity.
There is a 1 in 10,000 chance you'll die in car accident this year. - 100% chance that *multiple people* will die in a car accident today.
There have been 21,000 flu deaths this year.
There have been 2,800 cases of coronavirus.
Perspective.
I've never been able to figure out how the people who panic about stuff like this manage to navigate REAL threats to life and limb, like staircases and showers.
@mcfate - Humans have a very good innate sense of risk management. Innate is the key word. Just like most adults know applied physics, like where a ball will land, and how hard to throw a ball to get it to land in a certain place, but couldn't even begin to do the math behind it. We understand applied risk, but can't explain why X is riskier than Y at Z time.
@mcfate - yes.
But that extinction point is way far off.
Oh, well, good. So if life is horrible for my grandkids down the pike, thanks to the short-sightedness of people today, at least I won't have to watch it happen.
Sigh.
It's people's "very good innate sense of risk management" — on a PERSONAL level — that creates a good portion of the problems we see on a SOCIETAL level.
Just sayin'.
My "innate sense of risk management" informs me that hoarding everything I can is a sensible strategy.
@mcfate - sorry.. should be "immediate risk", not just any risk. (Our ancestors may have been easily spooked by a saber toothed tiger, but not so much the tiger's den.)
Unless we suddenly find out that the Earth is flat for real, I don't anticipate Rationality changing course on any of those kinds of issues. Science, done in good faith, provides the best understanding of the world and unless the Science stops being Earnest, will always be where my Trust lies. 😊
@Heucuva8 @mcfate @0x56 I think people don’t understand numbers that big on an innate level, which is why we strive to humanize with anecdotes. That also can have a backlash. Remember stranger danger in the 80’s? Or now Fox News trumpeting that immigrants are going to murder you. (But only the brown immigrants) 😖
@mcfate @Heucuva8 @0x56 well, yes. What’s the alternative? But even on the 80’s, if you look at it from a statistical perspective the numbers still weren’t all that big, my point was that people tend to conflate percentages and assume chance is a certainty that some thing will happen. Sometimes that’s a good thing, I.e. get your flu shot. Sometimes not.
@misterfive @mcfate @Heucuva8 @0x56 True, the fact that it’s coming from a foreign source isn’t helping either due to people’s fear of the “other”.
@misterfive @catie @Heucuva8 @0x56
I try to understand that life is uncertain, and every time I exhale, it could be the last.
But the odds don't strongly suggest that's an immediate likelihood. I'd be at as much risk of just dropping dead hiding in my closet or under my bed.
@mcfate @misterfive @Heucuva8 @0x56 I think we’re coming to the logical conclusion in this convo of existential dread and the inevitability of death and inventing an afterlife.🙂 what’s our unique afterlife going to be? 😂
@catie @mcfate @misterfive @Heucuva8 - Mine... kinda like Valhalla - lots or eating, drinking, and perhaps more than a few sparring matches.
@Heucuva8 @misterfive @0x56 @mcfate how dare you Misterfive! This is lich erasure! 😂😂😂
@catie @Heucuva8 @misterfive @mcfate - Liches are free to do as they please, as long as they don't try to convert me to some sort of *dead state. 😜
What would an Undead AI even look like? @0x56 @catie @misterfive @mcfate
@Heucuva8 @catie @misterfive @mcfate
It's not a pretty sight. Racks all over the ground, Knotted network cables being chewed on by mice. The cases that are still there are dented and rusting. Somehow there's still power, and not enough shorts to keep the processor going. Any status LEDs are weakly flickering.
Isn't that also the case if you catch a virus? 🤔
@misterfive @0x56 @catie @Heucuva8
"In the long run, we're all dead."
@mcfate @misterfive @0x56 @catie @Heucuva8
“No one here gets out alive...”
Okay, gonna go open up a vein now guys, you’ve convinced me life is futile.
@TheAbbotTrithemius @mcfate @0x56 @catie @Heucuva8
Hm. That wasn't MY point, certainly. Knowing we will die eventually (again, for the undead YMMV on that statement) is not the same thing g as Life is futile.
(And I do have to ask this: you are joking, right?)
@misterfive @TheAbbotTrithemius @mcfate @0x56 @Heucuva8 you’re welcome to come visit me in my afterlife of wine, cheese, and naps on soft couches! 😂😜
@catie @misterfive @TheAbbotTrithemius @0x56 @Heucuva8
You know, I can do all those things RIGHT NOW.
Maybe I'm dead and I went to Heaven and missed the memo. Dunno. They keep delivering weed when I text 'em.
@catie @misterfive @TheAbbotTrithemius @0x56 @Heucuva8
Me, I'd've thought a pack of smokes'd be cheaper in Heaven...
“I have a lot of growing up to do. I realized that the other day inside my fort.” – Zach Galifianakis
@TheAbbotTrithemius @misterfive @0x56 @catie @Heucuva8
"I used to think my brain was the most important part of my body until I realized who was telling me that." — Emo Phillips
“I had to stop drinking, cause I got tired of waking up in my car driving 90.” – Richard Pryor
@0x56 Mine...cheese, wine, books, and soft couches for naps.
@misterfive @catie @mcfate @Heucuva8 @0x56
It depends on the individual and the environmental factors and on the specific risk.
That’s too broad and alarmist a statement. Doesn’t help anyone, IMHO.
@TheAbbotTrithemius @catie @mcfate @Heucuva8 @0x56
I didn't mean that statement as a 'you should be terrified constantly' comment. I mean humans are *always* downplaying or even ignoring some risks while amplifying others. And that downplaying and amplification is usually not based on rational reasoning or even on understanding the numbers. It's part of being human.
Generally we down play risks we are familiar and comfortable with, because that gives us some illusion of control.
@misterfive @TheAbbotTrithemius @mcfate @Heucuva8 @0x56 That’s exactly how I took your comment.
@misterfive @catie @mcfate @Heucuva8 @0x56
Yeah I see that, and that’s a danger but just as dangerous is the crisis mentality that’s pushed on us 24/7
from the news cycle etc...
A reasonable, healthy person who’s clearly informed, under no illusions, believes in logic, science and is proactive in applying those factors needn’t fear much at all.
@TheAbbotTrithemius @catie @mcfate @Heucuva8 @0x56
But here's the thing: at heart, humans aren't rational. It's important to understand in what ways they aren't, and how that affects their behavior.
If you haven't read them yet, I really recommend checking out
Predictably Irrational by Dan Airely
and
Misbehaving by Richard Thayler
@misterfive @TheAbbotTrithemius @catie @Heucuva8 @0x56
Maybe that's the thing. I don't have too many "illusions of control" at this point.
@mcfate @misterfive @TheAbbotTrithemius @catie @Heucuva8 @0x56
Now there's a nugget of wisdom; surrender is liberation.
@0x56
Put another way: more than three times as many people have died of the flu JUST IN THE US, JUST SO FAR THIS YEAR, as have been simply diagnosed with Wuhan coronavirus.