“It is obvious to anyone who has studied a little history that to explain what did not happen is about as rigorous as fiction."

--Nathan Sivin, as quoted in The Patterning Instinct by Jeremy Lent.

It's an important point about speculation, in this case about history. Speculation reveals at least as much (probably more) about the person doing the speculation as what they are speculating about -- it reveals cultural and personal values not necessarily shared by the subject of speculation.