Total number of votes already cast: 1,896,960
PredictIt likelihood of Harris win: 52Yes, 48% No.
Virtual Tout Electoral College Prediction: Harris/Walz - 283
/Weird - 255
Mike’s note: Given that Predict It is the driver of Virtual Tout, the results should not be too surprising. It makes me wonder if there are coordinated efforts to buy as many shares of in the markets.
@Bliss Ah - these aren’t polls. Polls are backward looking. They ask “Who do you support?”
This question is forward looking. This asks “Will she win? Will she get to 270?”
@mikeharmanos
I understand. But I believe that's not a question that can be answered by a vote survey because it does not directly depend on voter opinion, but rather on the actual turnout of districts within purple districts to help shift a state electoral count for dems. That is why Harris is going to districts like Ripon, #WI and northern #PA.
@Bliss That’s a solid point.
@mikeharmanos
thank you, but I'm ignoring polls and not listening to stats till elections are certified DEC 15TH.