@Render He makes a good point, and I've been to Ypres and the Somme, but is he putting a brave face on it? Your last substack didn't point to much progress either
I understand.
I have tried to impress upon the readers that this isn't going to be a lightning dash down unguarded rounds deep into the enemy (Russian) rear areas.
Last years Kherson offensive was also slow, until the bridges over the river were taken out. This one is necessarily slower.
The Russians have had more time to build fortifications and lay millions of mines.
...
@killingfloorman For what it's worth I'm encouraged both by the fact that the Ukrainians are taking ground and by their resiliency in the face of the obstacles that they're dealing with.
I do expect the Russian army in the south to break and run at some point. But that point isn't here, yet.
@Render Thanks so much Render, your insight always makes things clearer
@killingfloorman Although the first point is just an estimate, on both of those two points I agree.
Very few people talk about (artillery) gun barrels. Those do wear out rapidly under the above conditions. And they're slightly more difficult to replace in large numbers. The Russians will have to reduce their traditionally bad quality control even further.
I also believe that their infantry has lost at least 2/3rds of its combat value. At least.
@Render wow. Sounds like they can keep throwing men at Ukraine but not much else
@killingfloorman They're throwing 59yr old ex-convicts into regular army units in the front lines as combat replacements. I don't think that they can keep throwing men much longer.
The Russian's do still have a massive stockpile of Cold War era stuff (tanks, other vehicles), of uncertain usefulness.
The Russian air force is still very much intact and a threat in being. The Russian navy is somewhat less intact, but also still very active.
@killingfloorman
I don't have a direct answer for how long. As you mentioned, entirely too many variables. Could be another year, could be tomorrow.
but I do have this...
Remember the "Storm-Z" volunteer battalion that made a video supporting Wagner last month?
This is all that is left of them. And in the 21st century that isn't sustainable by any army that isn't Chinese.