Revisited the COVID-19 data to see how long people take to enter a hospital after testing positive. Looks like 10 days has the highest correlation.
Should assume an additional 2-3 days to show symptoms to choose to get a test. So, somewhere between 12 to 13 days from infection to entering a hospital. Then, if they are going to die, seems like 10 days is the highest correlation.
Yesterday there were 19,396 people in an ICU. Mortality rates for these people is about 77%. That means that 14,935 of these people will die. If nobody went into the hospital as of today, we would still exceed 280K deaths. 5% of the total COVID deaths will be from people presently in the hospital. 1 out of 20.
And....infections are getting worse, not better.
This is the history of Testing, Hospitalizations and Deaths. While the positive tests are greatly outpacing the historical hospitalizations, we're still exposed to a massive uptick in daily death rates in the very near future. Hospitalizations are greater than at any time in this pandemic's history. And, unless therapies are getting much better, this is going to get ugly very soon. https://bit.ly/COVIDUSStates
538 has Biden over 50% in Georgia in a recent uptick in polling averages and other factors influencing their algorithm. Odds are in Biden's favor at 57%.
Given Ossof's strong debate performance, they may also get a D senator.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/georgia/
16 out of Biden's 87-out-of-100 chances to win are where he loses FL. Therefore, 45* can win FL 29 out of the 100 most probable scenarios and still lose. But, if 45* loses FL, he doesn't win.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
I counted 14 scenarios where Biden looses FL and still wins the election. There is roughly a 1-in-4 chance that FL will fall to 45*. Biden presently has 51.3% in FL with 5% undecided.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/florida/
I've been building COVID dashboards for my own use, but maybe people here might find them interesting or useful. Have a look!
https://bit.ly/coviddashboardsweb
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