What if Biden drops out... a lesson learned from 1968 Dem Convention.
"In other words, this would be something of a free-for-all in which announced candidates would be scrambling for support among the delegates. Now that would be television worth watching.
A caveat: since this situation would be, in its way, unprecedented it can be expected that shenanigans will ensue to gain the necessary margin, either at the conventions, through the courts, or in “smoke filled rooms.”
https://peterosnos.substack.com/p/if-donald-trump-andor-joe-biden-drop
@Maude
Unless Biden resigns, thereby placing Harris in the incumbent role. The ticket simply shifts to her and her "exciting, charismatic VP" (tbd).
The DCCC is behind the strategy and squishes any competition ferociously.
Of course, all of this requires careful strategic planning, coordination and the compliance of politicians. I'd find that more amazing than Biden resigning.
@Maude
Whoah! Did I say it would be EASY? 😂
That's where the strategic thinking comes in. Hard. Very hard.
And it would have had to be happening over the past week for it to be ready. Probably done by a McKinsey or some consulting firm just so they can keep it secret. Then vetted by the campaign staff - which would remain the same.
@jurban
And the ticket doesn't automatically shift to Harris. Biden would have to drop his 3900 delegates, which then creates an "open" convention.
1968 Dem Convention all over again. After that fiasco, voters not only lost confidence in the presidential candidate, they lost faith in the party.
Dems lost White House. If LBJ had only resigned AFTER the convention, it would have been easier. 🤷🏼♀️
@Maude
And that would be part of the strategy: Keeping the potential competition inline because they need to minimize the chaos at the convention.
Hard. Very hard.
And, pre-determined. Which implies secrecy. From ambitious politicians. Closing in on impossible, but not impossible.
Biden would release his delegates at the convention and endorse Kamala.
Buy stock in popcorn manufacturers......
@jurban
And, if it goes smoothly....
If not... 1968 Deja Vu.
Dems lose everything.
I have very little faith those politicians that ran against Biden in 2020 and 2024 would not raise their hand again and pull delegates. 🤷🏼♀️
@Maude
The difference in 2024: Trump.
The enemy is the focus.
I suspect nobody wants to be the one that is to blame for Trump winning because they caused chaos.
@jurban In 1968, Dems viewed Nixon the same way (albeit not as vitreous) ... and Nixon won.
Lawrence O'Donnell wrote a great book about that convention titled "Playing with Fire".
Kulansky's book "1968, the year that rocked the world" is another good one.
@jurban
I think Jester was 💯 yesterday when he said, Biden takes the blame if Trump wins.
"If Biden had stayed in, Trump wouldn't have won.
If Biden had dropped out, Trump wouldn't have won."
People have found a scapegoat and that's a comfort zone for them.
@Maude
One requires action, and thus explicit intent.
The other is no action.
Courage is judged by action that can be identified.
If he drops out (with a plan) and loses, it demonstrates his personal courage.
If he stays in and loses he will go down in history as too egotistical to see the right path.
@jurban Time will tell.
@jurban
Then you have to get the new candidate on the ballot in all 50 states.
Each state has different rules for how the political party must certify their candidate and how many days before the election this must happen. (Think how Ohio almost kept Biden off).
Not as easy as it sounds. RFK jr couldn't get on every ballot.
If he drops AFTER the convention, then it's up to party leaders 2 choose the candidate. they still must go thru routine to get on ballots, but no fist-fights at convention