Watching the Ukrainian units move around the map in slow motion is somewhat akin to watching an anthill that's been kicked.
The maskirovka is real.
25th ABN brigade is in the line on the eastern front just north of the Kreminna region. It's attached tank battalion, now equipped with the Challengers 2's, is not there.
The Russians obviously think those tanks are there, because they've moved all 3 tank regiments of the thrice rebuilt 90th Tank Division opposite of the Uke 25th ABN.
The Ukrainian 5th Tank Brigade reportedly moves all over the eastern end of the southern front.
But 5th Tank doesn't really exist. It's a paper brigade used only for training.
Ukr 23rd Independent Tank battalion simply disappeared from the northern end of the eastern front. It's surviving tanks/crews were assigned to other units.
...
Ukr elite 92nd Mechanized brigade is currently opposite of Svatove in the central part of the eastern front. But it's still closer to the size of a tank division.
Ukr elite 93rd mech brigade took over control of the Bakhmut fighting weeks (months?) ago. Formerly a brigade the size of a tank division, it's now the size of a small army corp.
Ukr elite 72nd mech brigade is still in the Corner (between eastern/southern fronts) where it too is closer to a division in size.
I'm mentioning the elite brigades because those are the ones that Russia is watching closest.
There are 12 new mechanized brigades, 3 new infantry brigades, and about a dozen new infantry battalions of various types. Locations generally unknown, yet.
3 of the new mech brigades have appeared on or near the western end of the southern front near Zaporizhzhia. I do not believe that they well stay there, I believe that they will move further east before going offensive.
@Render
I'm going to be most interested in how Ukr kept the russians guessing before executing their counteroffensive.
One strategy could be that they amass the tanks at one location and then, in the evening, load them onto the nearest railroad and ship them to the intended counteroffensive destination overnight.
@Render
So, I guess if you see a fleet of flatbed trucks driving to a destination, that's not where the counter-offensive will take place.
@jurban They move in singles and pairs, tarp over the load, with wide spacing (as much as half a mile depending on load type), and usually at night. Often times individual vehicles will take different routes to arrive at the same objective.
In 2014 the Russians caught a Ukrainian motorized brigade bunched up out in the open in broad daylight. That Ukrainian brigade lost almost all of its vehicles and about 1/3 of its troops in one artillery strike.
The Ukrainians took that lesson to heart.
@jurban Flatbed trailers. Ukraine isn't using trains to move their armor within artillery range of the lines. The flatbeds are faster, more flexible, and less vulnerable.