This is not the update I want to post, but June 21st has been an unequivocally bad day for #Ukraine.
Russia has made significant advances in the East, capturing Toshkivka, Vrubivka, Pidlisne & Myrna Dolyna. They are now ~4km from Lysychansk (the city across the river from Severodonetsk).
UAF forces are in significant danger of being encircled in multiple areas if they do not pull back quickly enough.
The first map shows what is likely significant area denial by UAF artillery.
#Ukraine is likely in the process of pulling their troops back to secondary or tertiary lines, and the concentration of fire you see on that first map is their artillery making sure the Russian's can't remain in contact as they retreat.
It is difficult to say just what changed to allow this sudden, large success by Russian forces. It could simply be that enough of their units finished "reconstituting" to allow them to make a large, simultaneous push.
It is also possible (though I would say pretty unlikely) that this is a deliberate "collapse" by #Ukraine to get Russia to overextend - at which point they would counterattack savagely.
It does reduce the size of the UAF defensive line, which in turn concentrates their forces better, but I think it's a bit optimistic to believe they intentionally gave up in 4 different directions at once.
It is very important for #Ukraine to not allow Russia to gain initiative from these successes. We know they have very substantially built-up secondary lines of defense. They need to be able to hold those and continue to bleed Russian forces.
It isn't *all* bad news for Ukraine, though. They continue to have limited success around Kherson, and have struck Snake Island yet again. They also made minor gains near Kharkiv. None of that is anything to write home about, but it isn't nothing.
@jgold what do they need in order to win? can they win?
i feel that they've been 'withstanding' over these past few months. they're fighting w/ everything they've got. but fatigue has got to be setting in. & morale can't be that high.
& 🇷🇺 is an asshole.
@singlemaltgirl
They need planes, drones, tanks, IFVs, rocket artillery, more 155 conventional artillery (and replacement barrels), and a fuck ton of ammo. The ammo has been one of my pet peeves since the start of the war.
We pat ourselves on the back for send 10 MLRS systems with 100 rockets each. But a full volley from one of those is 12 rockets. We aren’t even giving them 10 full reloads! Same story with the 155 shells. In a month we give them what they fire in a week. It’s infuriating.
@singlemaltgirl
They absolutely *can* win. But they absolutely *can’t* do it on their own. They’re willing to do the fighting, bleeding, and dying to destroy Russia’s ability to wage war in the near future. All they need is for us to give them the means to do so.
I understand we need our own reserves (you know, in case China decides to get up to some shit), be we have *thousands* of Infantry Fighting Vehicles just gathering dust in storage. We can spare more than a few dozen.