Pending any crazy developments, this is going to be one of my few updates on the war in #Ukraine today. I'm still feeling very out of sorts after yesterday's shooting, so I'm having a hard time concentrating.
Anyway, here is the update for today (threaded because I've already wasted so many characters):
1/5
The attack on Lyman seems to have calmed down some, from the very fierce fighting we've been seeing. As it stands, Russia holds half the city and #Ukraine holds the other half. I expect Russia will likely take control of the city in the next few days, as Ukraine pulls back to secondary positions, likely across the now infamous Siverskyi Donets river or all the way back to Slovyansk.
2/5
The most alarming development is the southern breakthrough of Russian troops at Popasna. This was achieved by creating a mix some of Russia's most capable remaining forces from the 76th Guard Air Assault Division, the 1st Guards Tank Army, some Naval Infantry, and PMCs. This salient obviously places the Ukrainian forces north of it at risk of being encircled. I do not believe Russia has the forces available to encircle the entire Lysychansk area if #Ukraine commits to a full defense.
3/5
It's already been confirmed that Russia is digging *deep* into their stores of armor. The fact that they are sending T-62s into a modern warzone is very telling. These tanks have been in storage for *decades* and are just steel coffins. Ultimately, due to sanctions, Russia only has access to the hardware it had on-hand when it started this war.
5/6 (oops!)
#Ukraine, on the other hand, has access to nearly limitless resupply as long as western support remains. Russia also has to dance around domestic support for the war, while Ukraine enjoys nearly 100% domestic and international support.
The longer this war goes, the worse it is for Russia. It's my hope that western nations maintain these sanctions until all Ukrainian territory is returned to them, regardless of the status of active military engagements.
6/6
It is possible, perhaps likely, that Ukraine will choose to cede territory for additional time, falling back to their secondary defensive line while reinforcing the area.
Ultimately, time and attrition will favor #Ukraine over Russia, as long as they continue to receive western support. I expect to see several weeks of relatively minimal gains by both sides, but unless something drastic changes I do not see the overall course of this war turning in Russia's favor.
4/5