Per @WarMonitor3 [T]:
#Ukraine "forces have reportedly crossed the river Northwest of Rubizhne(Kharkiv Oblast) and are advancing towards Vovchans'k. They have also advanced east of Staryi Saltiv and taken the town of Zarichne (Unconfirmed)."
If this is confirmed it would put UA forces in position to begin to seriously threaten RU supply lines to Izyum. I've marked the reported gains in purple on the second map. Top arrows are the likely next steps, the bottom is an (overly) aggressive option.
@jurban @jgold 35th CAA with two BTG's, including the BTG from 64th Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (Bucha), is part of that group.
All of the BTG's in that group are very under strength, and were already under strength prior to their re-entry into the Eastern Front.
Remnants of 1st GTA moving north to protect that supply line might slow the Ukrainians down a bit. But probably not for long.
@Render @jurban
Agreed. UA has started to show the benefits of all their new toys. They outrange RU artillery with their own, which is likely what allowed this crossing to happen in the first place.
It's pretty unlikely that any "reconstituted" BTG is anywhere near full strength, and I have my doubts about their willingness to walk right into UA artillery fire. Even if they do, though, we've seen time and again what a lack of infantry support gets RU's mech-heavy strategy.
@jgold @jurban Russian units that didn't enter Ukraine in the first phase (5th CAA, the reserve regiments of 1st GTA, and 106th Guards ABN Div) were at or near full strength when they entered the Eastern Front operational zone. But no longer, all are chewed up and spit out.