"People, by and large, are bad at probability. We turn high odds into certainties, as when people assume that the accuracy of PCR tests for COVID means they’ll always yield correct results, or when we think of relatively unlikely events, like catching the virus after being fully vaccinated, as impossible. And in between 100 percent certainty and zero chance, the way we interpret any given number can change radically based on how that probability is expressed."
https://www.theopennotebook.com/2021/05/11/fat-chance-writing-about-probability/