Extreme data nerdery - Biden can perform "4% worse than expected" in remaining Nevada ballots-to-count and still win Nevada. If he performs only "as expected" in Democratic-leaning counties, he can lose HALF of his expected votes (go straight to Trump) in EVERY Republican-leaning county.
If he performs 2.5% over-expected in D-leaning, every single remaining vote in every single R-leaning county can go to Trump and he still wins.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jLqq1_Ws0P8iq0yB_6ReaY9kZNH-QKnIc2UeKyQClgo/edit
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And it is widely expected that remaining ballots-to-count are absentee, thus should trend more Democratic - hence MASSIVELY pessimistic still winning is positive.