Recent evidence points toward abrupt, irreversible sea level rise along the US coast
Red alerts signaling an AMOC slowdown
#AMOC #climatechange #climatescience #IPCC
https://susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/recent-evidence-points-toward-abrupt
I am really really curious what #agriculture in the USA will look like once this AMOC tipping point starts impacting it. The description of what happens to Northern Europe is horrific.
@peeppeepcircus Bread basket moves north.
@Ruthat @peeppeepcircus was 100 degrees in Kyiv this summer, speaking of bread baskets
a climate journalist wrote a book about climate migration in the US. lots of different maps, but it sounds like agriculture is not going to be at the higher latitudes everywhere.
And I’m not sure where the AMOC fits in, how its slowing would affect the NE.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/on-the-move-review-climate-change-where-people-live
@peeppeepcircus @Ruthat I think the AMOC affects ocean storm strength and trajectories.
From the article, if the AMOC slows down (a climate change tipping point):
“ It will likely lead to a far colder Northern Europe that will periodically be swept by very hot winds from the south—meaning subject to a "crazy stormy climate" with "absolutely unprecedented weather extremes," in Rahmstorf's words. And, more generally, it will have profound implications for weather and agriculture around the globe, as hot areas get even hotter and rain patterns shift dramatically.”
@peeppeepcircus @b4cks4w @Ruthat
When you nudge a stable system out of stability you get chaos, not a slightly different stability
@BrentSullivan @peeppeepcircus @Ruthat some questions about how stable this system is, but no doubt it's changing fast. Need another decade of data
@peeppeepcircus @BrentSullivan @Ruthat
"curious about NE US ag/climate."
You and me both. The whole east coast.
@b4cks4w @peeppeepcircus @Ruthat
I made the linked video 4 years ago and it discusses typing points and why climate predictions are coming true faster than forecast. I remember seeing reports then that the Gulf steam was slowing
@BrentSullivan @peeppeepcircus @Ruthat It's been slowing, so folks have been dropping more sensors in it and generally watching it more closely and @peeppeepcircus linked to a recent paper that they're radically moving up the timeline estimates. At the same time the new data are bringing new understanding of the AMOC and precluding some assumptions.
TL/DR; chaos: sooner
https://arxiv.org/html/2406.11738v1
@BrentSullivan @b4cks4w @Ruthat
🙏
Reminds me of this headline I just found - from 1988.
@peeppeepcircus @BrentSullivan @Ruthat Newsweek, 1953. (see the 2nd page, bottom right)
https://archive.org/details/sim_newsweek-us_1953-05-18_41_20/page/74/mode/2up?view=theater
/nosanitize
@b4cks4w @BrentSullivan @Ruthat
of course it’s not just us ignoring reality, it’s everyone, but still.
I had mentioned this book On the Move, it has a lot of maps of what our future will look like https://abrahm.com/
But I’m still trying to pinpoint exactly where agriculture will be possible on a map (say in 2050).
@b4cks4w @BrentSullivan @Ruthat
also, after some shocking megafires damaged the #GiantSequoia population in the Sierra Nevada mountain range in 2020-2021, I remember this excerpt from this pbs interview:
"Christy Brigham:
We really are seeing impacts of climate change that these parks & models did not predict until 2050 or 2080 at the earliest. And they are happening now."
@peeppeepcircus @b4cks4w @Ruthat
My understanding is that weather becomes too chaotic for industrial scale agriculture anywhere.
At 4°, crop failures reach 60%
We're headed for 5° by the end of the century
The earth will be fine
Civilization wil crash and billions will die
Big brains and opposable thumbs are an evolutionary dead end unless we systematically change our entire economy in a mobilization reminiscent of WW2
@b4cks4w @BrentSullivan @Ruthat
well that’s just it, scientists are saying the AMOC tipping point is coming up sooner than previously predicted.
"During that talk, Rahmstorf referred to René van Westen and other scientists in Utrecht as the "leading group in this topic now." Earlier this month, van Westen and colleagues uploaded a paper suggesting that the AMOC is likely to collapse sometime between 2037 and 2064, with the most likely time being around 2050“
curious about NE US ag/climate.