Not looking too good for the home team ... Right now this is at only 40% formation in the next seven days, however some models show a significant drop in millibar pressure in about a week.
Early September is our most likely month for hurricanes, so right on schedule.
The "whatever" went to 50% probability overnight, then back to 40%. The number means the probability of it becoming a tropical event (35+MPH winds) in the next seven days. As the Fox 35 graphic shows, lots of uncertainty about where it might go.
There's at least one more behind it, perhaps two. The early models suggest they'll curve north into the Atlantic, but too soon to say for certain.
Long-range runs for the "whatever" courtesy of Mike's Weather Page on Facebook ... What concerns me is the very low millibar readings with some of these runs. All of these would be next weekend some time, so lots of uncertainty.
Looks like we in Florida can secure from red alert from now. Next weekend's wave is now forecast to weaken and head for the Yucatan. Anything behind that peels north into the Atlantic.
