Hurricane #Francine with literal last minute push at intensification making it now 100mph Category 2 Hurricane as nears landfall. 4pCDT 11Sept2024

Northeast eyewall of Hurricane Francine now moving onshore into Atchafalaya Bay region, just South of Morgan City / Houma, LA area. 245pCDT 11Sept2024

With in storm air recon finding pressure rising, Hurricane #Francine has likely (or at least nearly) peaked in intensity. 11Sept2024 930aEDT/830aCDT

Invest 92L and 93L between Caribbean and Cabo Verde Islands off Africa. 92L low 30% chance of development per NHC. 93L high 80% chance, models favor eventual turn North out to sea currently. 10Sept2024

Scattered showers near the Southwest Mexico coast may try to develop later this week or weekend as generally heads towards the South tip of Baja. 10Sept2024

Francine becomes a Hurricane Monday evening. 10Sept2024

Incoming #Francine impacts include:
-Rains (flooding already soaked areas)
-Storm Surge (rise in water above normal tide level)
-Tornadoes (most common in Northeast quadrant)
-Winds (just simple 40mph starts tree and power issues)
-Rip currents (Even far from storm when sunny)
#TXwx #LAwx #MSwx 9Sept24

Storm clouds bubbling Monday evening. Tropical Storm #Francine
Latest official every three hours at: https://www.hurricanes.gov/ 1,4,7,10a/pCDT
#TXwx #LAwx #MSwx 9Sept24

Scattered storms along a trough in Bay of Campeche producing 50mph(85km/h) winds. Expected to become named storm Monday, then move near coast of Mexico and head generally towards TX/LA region eventually as a Hurricane. Latest official every three hours at: https://www.hurricanes.gov/ 1,4,7,10a/pCDT
#PTC6 #TXwx #LAwx #MSwx 8Sept24

Misfiring spark plugs all around for the Atlantic. 5Sept24

This highly sheared low level swirl of clouds probably looks the best visually of the four areas being monitored by NHC in the Atlantic. Wind shear blowing any storm formation off to the East currently as generally moves NNE. 4Sept24

Just looking at models:
Could get small spin up well SW of Hawaii Friday.
Eastern Pacific maybe off SW Mexico / South Baja peninsula region next week.
NHC has none on the board for now.
4Sept24

Four areas Atlantic. NHC with between 10% & 30% chance tropical development with them. Still nothing solid in the models for now. 4Sept24

Three areas to watch in the Atlantic as we near peak of Hurricane season with NHC giving them 30, 10 and 30% chance of development each. One near Hispaniola Euro model shows stalling in Bay of Campeche next week which could allow time for development. 3Sept24

Atlantic: 2Sept24
Scattered showers across East Caribbean region NHC 40% development chance either side of Yucatan late this week to early next.
Area just off NW Africa 40% as well near Cabo Verde islands.

Tropical Storm #Hone bringing scattered storms near Midway.
Former #Gilma ghost cloud spin moving Northwest of Hawaii.
31Aug2024

Also posting some of those sub-models ('ensembles') for GFS and Euro. You can see the multiple different outcomes for the same general region now into next weekend.

Some like to post 'one model, not a forecast' hurricane doomsday model runs. Models are generally made up of multiple sub-models, run multiple times per day & can show completely different results each run. Models are not forecast. We look for consensus & consistency among models. The most consistent theme is slow potential development currently. This can change in the coming days. NHC forecast low (yellow) to medium (orange) development in the shaded areas for the coming week. 31Aug2024

Two areas being monitored for possible future development in the Atlantic for Labor Day (US holiday) next week. First nears Eastern Caribbean around Monday when could begin to develop (NHC 50% chance). New area coming off Africa 20%. 29Aug2024

Ghost of Tropical Depression #Gilma just Northeast of the Big Island. Scattered storms off to the Northeast of storm center. 29Aug2024