WPC (NOAA) additional rainfall totals Tuesday evening through this coming Saturday.
8pEDT 6Aug2024 #Debby #SCwx #NCwx

The ghost of #Carlotta & #Daniel in Eastern Pacific.

Both wandering spinning clouds that have lost their storms.

6Aug24

Dueling tropical cyclones #Emilia & #Fabio.

Only one may win. Centers about 340miles(545km) apart.

NHC betting on Emilia.

6Aug24

Reminder tropical systems have far reaching impacts:

Cone map says storm center near central NC Friday. But heavy scattered rains already pivoting into the region midday Tuesday.

#Debby #NCwx #VAwx 6Aug24

Large scale flood events:

Road crews / police cannot monitor or close all flooded roads. Not enough resources, people, equipment, time, information, ability to get to due to other flooded roads, other emergencies, etc.

Stay home if able & at a minimum “turn around don’t drown”.
#scwx #ncwx #Debby

Debby expected to drift into Atlantic Tuesday where some restrengthening is likely as continues pushing rain inland.

Elsewhere scattered showers in East Caribbean have potential to develop near Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC with 30% chance tropical development.
5Aug24

Eastern Pacific:
-Carlotta
-Daniel
-Emilia
-Fabio

All headed out to sea.
Carlotta/Daniel on last leg.
Emilia/Fabio to combine but only 1 will win, NHC going with Emilia.
5Aug24

WPC (NOAA) 7-day rainfall forecast animation as #Debby slowly moves through the Carolina's.
Day/time image frame valid for is the small text top left.
"Turn around don't drown". Most US flood deaths involve vehicle being driven into flood waters. Don't become a statistic.
Large scale disaster events = authorities ~ WILL NOT ~ be able to close most flooded roads.
4Aug24 #SCwx #NCwx

We wake to find #Debby still lopsided and slowly organizing. Most storms and winds are on the Eastern side. West side with nearby dry air and some wind shear. Will need to wrap storms around the core to strengthen more quickly. 4Aug24 7aEDT

Atlantic:
'Debby' slowly organizing for tonight.
Slow moving after Florida landfall = major flood threat from rain in Southeast US potential.
Additional Watches coming soon for the Atlantic coast as well.
3Aug24 11pEDT

East Pacific:
'Carlotta' likely peaked. Moving into dryer air, cooler waters with wind shear ahead.
To the Southwest 'Daniel' just able to grab a name. Expected to near Carlotta as both fall apart.
Invest '96E' South of Mexico 90% chance develops. Likely absorbs another Low between it and Carlotta.
All systems heading out to sea.
3Aug24 9pCST

Looking for forecast uncertainty information?
Read the 'Forecast Discussion' text link at 5 & 11am/pmEDT at https://www.hurricanes.gov/
3Aug24

Did you know?
Cone map does not convey forecast uncertainty.
Cone size is the 5-year average NHC forecast position error.
Slow movement of #Debby makes cone appear different than other storm cones but same size used all year.
Cone made: Forecast position points, draw 5-year average error circles, connect to make smooth cone shape.

That said, NHC forecast typically rival any single computer model during a season.

PTC4 (Potential Tropical Cyclone Four)
2Aug2024 11aEDT
Latest issued every 3 hours at: https://www.hurricanes.gov/

Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 #PTC4 (was invest 97L) for Atlantic system - Watches, cone map, etc. coming from NHC shortly as we are closer in time to Tropical Storm impacts arriving over land. (PTC designation let’s that impact potential be known before a storm officially forms) 2Aug2024 #FLwx

Don’t be surprised if you see Watches for portions of Florida issued today for invest #97L. Nothing has really changed - just closer in time to impacts arriving. PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) designation would let that information be disseminated before a storm forms for advanced lead times. #FLwx 2Aug24

GFS and Euro spaghetti models Thursday 1Aug24 to next Wednesday.
Invest #97L (Invest = area of interest = dedicates more resources to monitor potential tropical trouble. Breezy scattered shower blob for now.)
#FLwx

After being consistent for days, the Euro model shifts towards GFS solution with possible Atlantic system near Eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Some signals may stall out & meander near the Southeast US for many days. Rain/flood, tornado threats if that occurs. Strength to be determined. Still evolving forecast. 1Aug24

Atlantic blob may be near Cuba / Bahamas region Friday. Near Florida for the weekend into next week. For now heavy scattered shower / flood maker, potential tornado threats. Questions on track / strength. Some Westward shifts in models today, but hard to tell when system hasn't actually formed yet & mountains nearby. NHC with 60% chance tropical development.
31July2024 8pEDT
(Reminder, I'm just a fan of tropical systems / weather, not a pro)

Tropical Storm #Carlotta forms in the Eastern Pacific about 310miles(500km) Southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Expected to head out to sea.
31July2024