WeatherSources
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Delivering reliable weather sources with a focus on Cyclones(Hurricanes). Fan, not meteorologist. 100% weather data & information to help those seeking it.
Joined Nov 2022
For now, as of Thursday evening, invest #95L is just a few scattered showers far out in the Atlantic.
(5/5) 20July2023
Models have been on/off with developing invest #95L or not. With models the trend is your friend (as they say). Consistency would lead to higher confidence. Models perform better once a system forms. For now mixed signals. So we watch & wait! Plenty of time still.
(4/5) 20July2023
Whether invest #95L develops into something more then just scattered showers or not, rain may reach the Eastern Caribbean around Tuesday of next week. As enters Caribbean wind shear may be present which could limit development (one wind shear model shown below).
(3/5) 20July2023
Traveling with the trade winds across the Atlantic with invest #95L is a large region of dry dusty air from the Sahara Desert (SAL, seen as yellow, orange, reds in image below). If dry air gets entangled with the potential system it can prevent storms from forming. 20July2023 (2/5)
Looks like the potential Atlantic system has been labeled invest #95L (number given for tracking, communication, and information gathering tasking purposes). As of 8pEDT 20July2023 NHC now gives the area a 30% chance of development next 7 days. There are multiple hurdles ahead: (1/5)
Up for next week in Atlantic is an area between Africa and the Caribbean being monitored. NHC's seven day outlook currently gives it a 20% chance of development. Some models on/off about developing it. Models suggest would be around Tuesday when maybe near Caribbean. 19July2023
Tropical Storm #Calvin passing South of The Big Island Hawaii 2aHST,8aEDT 19July2023. System weakening but heavy scattered rains will continue Wednesday.
Tropical Storm winds(39mph+) extend up to 140miles from center. Storm about 160miles from Hilo; 295miles from Honolulu.
Storm not in great shape as infrared satellite shows. Colors are colder cloud tops indicating where storms/heavy rain likely located; area moving toward The Big Island. While no storms present at storm center South of island
Tropical Storm #Calvin beginning to show on Hawaiian weather radar. 4pHST,10pEDT 18July2023
Tropical Storm Watch may be issued for portions of Hawaii this evening due to #Calvin. This is expected and not an increase in threat level, the forecast is still unchanged. Watches are time based issued, so 48 hours before possible TS winds may arrive they are issued. 16July2023
Historical average says in a few weeks tropical system activity in Atlantic should ramp up, peaking mid-September (blue arrow is today). Other than #Don all looks quiet this week. Next week watching tropical waves between Africa and Caribbean for any development signs. 16July2023
Hurricane #Calvin weakening. Expected to pass over or South of Hawaii late Tuesday through Wednesday as a 35-40mph Tropical Storm or breezy/scattered shower remnant. Waves 10-15ft+ possible some islands, 5-10ft elsewhere. 15July23 Wave height model(time top center Zulu time)#HIwx
Subtropical Storm #Don Friday evening 14July2023. GOESeast NOAA satellite imagery by SSEC RealEarth™: https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/
Sunrise over invest #94L in the open waters of the North central Atlantic 13July2023
In the North central Atlantic we have invest #94L (Number to identify potential tropical trouble) between Bermuda & The Azores with 60% chance of becoming Sub-Tropical system this week. The swirl of clouds is associated with frontal boundaries so not purely tropical. It is expected to turn back generally Northward soon. By this weekend it will move towards cooler waters where likely to weaken. 8pEDT 12July23
WeatherSources
- Website
- HTTPS://WeatherSources.com
Delivering reliable weather sources with a focus on Cyclones(Hurricanes). Fan, not meteorologist. 100% weather data & information to help those seeking it.
Joined Nov 2022