Hurricane Oscar is an extremely small core system. These tiny storms are prone to rapid rise - and rapid collapse - in wind speed. In storm aircraft data helped provide this afternoon's upgrade to hurricane as satellite could not see such a tiny center under cloud cover and wind reach(hurricane winds only extend about 5miles from center!) 19-Oct2024

Tropical Storm Oscar forms just North of Hispaniola. Model guidance suggest strong cold front near Cuba / FL / Bahamas region (blocks path to the US) and high wind shear eventually turn out to the Northeast. There is still a low chance it moves opposite direction along the frontal boundary to the WSW but guidance currently leans towards the NE. Saturday 19-Oct2024 11aEDT

Tropical Storm Nadine nearing Belize landfall. Main impact: heavy scattered rains. Eventual remnants likely reform South of Mexico in Eastern Pacific next week and heads out to sea. Saturday 19-Oct2024 8aEDT

Invest 94L just North of Dominican Republic. Consolidated overnight into a nice ball, good outflow, found a small pocket of lower wind shear. May be able to be classified or named briefly before running into a wall of wind shear closer to Cuba this weekend that should knock it out. 19-Oct2024 8aEDT

94L nearing Caribbean running out of time to develop past a scattered showers blob.
95L development odds increasing as moves towards Belize.
17-Oct2024

Models still show some low end Tropical development chances with invest 94L as nears Caribbean later this week into the weekend. Currently surrounded by very dry air. Thereafter, models leaning towards dive WSW towards the Yucatan / Central America for next week with additional moisture chances. 16-Oct2024

Invest 94L to bring scattered showers, breezy conditions to the Greater Antilles region later this week and weekend. Of the models that do develop something, they are split on either eventual turn Northeast out, or WSW into Western Caribbean and Central America(where another system expected to bring heavy rains this weekend). 15-Oct2024 (Euro ensemble models shown Tues-Tues)

@Pat_Walrond So many future generations lost… And no real warning beforehand.

Low flight after storm Hurricane Milton aerial imagery now starting to be populated on NOAA's interactive map. Additional photos will be added daily typically. #FLwx https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/milton/index.html

@sentientdessert Yes, but tropical systems developing from storms moving off NW Africa is coming to an end for the season soon as development typically shifts back towards West Atlantic, Caribbean and Eastern Gulf of Mexico regions as head more into October per history. North Africa has experienced above average rainfall this season so not too surprising to still see some activity currently along with warm waters I would say.

What's next for the Atlantic?
~94L: Cabo Verde Islands. NHC with 30% development chance for next day or so. Moisture eventually reaches East Caribbean end of next week.
~Watching for signs of development West Caribbean / Yucatan region end of next week. Nothing solid in models for now, but something to check back in on next week.

10-Oct24

Tropical Storm Leslie (safely 1,000miles(1,609km) Northeast of Puerto Rico) likely meets same fate as Milton this weekend (become part of frontal boundary) if it makes it that far. Wind shear blowing storms well off to the Southwest as harmless clouds spin towards the Northwest. 10-Oct24

Not much left of Hurricane Milton as becomes post tropical. Now part of a frontal boundary, headed out to sea. 10-Oct24 910pEDT

Huge sensor data void where storm surge likely greatest this evening. Ft. Myers and Naples far to the South have several feet of surge. Highest likely somewhere between there and Sarasota. May be first light Thursday until we know what has occurred. Values as of 820pEDT 9-Oct24 and still changing. Hurricane Milton

Looks like the shear starting erode the NW outer corner of Hurricane Milton. Also, Hurricane Hunter aircraft detecting possible start of another ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle). 7aEDT 9-Oct24

Reminder:
Hurricanes wobble.
Focus on the trend, not each little back and forth.
Trends matter now for later.
Wobbles matter once right near the beach.
Hurricane Milton 9-Oct24 6aEDT

[image: Carla(1961) wobbles/loops in overall movement direction trend; Milton NOAA water vapor satellite loop]

Closeup of Hurricane Milton
Tuesday evening 8-Oct2024
Image: GOES16 Visible (band2) CSU/CIRA & NOAA

[Ripples are gravity waves as energy from intense storms propagates out (like waves on top of the ocean, wave energy atop the clouds)]

@CJLavoie Just scattered showers and some storms sparking up as moisture runs into part of frontal boundary to its Northeast.

Cat5 Hurricane Milton
Tuesday 8-Oct2024
Image: NOAA GOES16 IR-Sandwich band

Planning tool, not forecast. But some areas may see those values. Allows you to see should that occur at your location how high water could be with this storm. Surge forecast already accounts for expected lower wind by landfall so if see lower winds that doesn't mean lower surge.