Invest #92L Northeast of the Bahamas is fighting dry air limiting storm activity. Expected to head into the Southeast US coast towards Friday with some limited showers. NHC with 30% chance develops into more tropical trouble. 19Jun2024

If it weren't for #PTC1 designation (Started in 2017 as a way for NHC to communicate impacts / risk / issue watch/warnings prior to a storm actually forming), this would have been the first cone map for newly designated Tropical Storm #Alberto 19Jun2024 10aCDT

Impacts from #PTC1 heading for land soon. 18Jun2024

Sloppy June storms are common. "Don't focus on center point". Large wind field North of storm, hence Tropical Storm warnings TX coast. Onshore wind flow to help push waters higher North of #PTC1, especially around GalvestonTX. Heavy rains coming to TX / Mexico. 18Jun2024 7pCDT

~#PTC1 in Gulf of Mexico.
~Another system could form there towards next week. NHC 20% tropical development chance.
~Area may approach Southeast US coast around Friday 20% tropical development chance.
17Jun2024 8pEDT/7pCDT

Although #PTC1 has Tropical Storm winds it is not organized enough to be classified as a tropical system. PTC designation allows NHC to proactively communicate potential impacts and hazards. Rain is currently the largest impact. 17Jun2024 7pCDT/6pCST

CAG(Central American Gyre) spinning invest #90e into Central America with very heavy rain. Broad Low to move into Bay of Campeche(SW Gulf of Mexico) where has high 70%(NHC) slow tropical development chance. Main impact: Rain into Central America & West Gulf region this week. 17Jun2024 7aCDT/6aCST

Low may form Northeast of Bahamas, move into Southeast US late this week bringing some rain chances. NHC 30% chance of tropical development. Will likely be fighting nearby dry air. 17Jun2024 8aEDT

Low pressure may form along the tail of frontal boundary later this week in the Atlantic near Bahamas and head generally towards the Southeast US coast bringing increased rain chances. NHC with 20% chance of tropical development. 8pEDT 15Jun2024

While the Euro and GFS disagree on the amount, they both call for broad swath of tropical moisture into portions of the US Gulf coast and Mexico this week. Very high rainfall potential across SE Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador region. 15Jun2024(totals mm Saturday-Friday this week)

14Jun2024
East Pacific: NHC no longer monitoring showers along the South Mexico coast that had low chance of tropical development. Scattered rains remain into the region.
Atlantic:
-#90L near NC coast merging with front. That's about it for this invest.
-Broad Low may develop West Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche early next week. NHC 50% chance tropical development. Either way likely brings heavy scattered rain potential into Mexico / US Gulf coast.

Elongated lower level Low of invest #90L peaking out from beneath the clouds off the North Carolina coast. Not a healthy look if you want a tropical system. 14Jun2024 1145aEDT

invest #90L near the Carolina coast trying to organize but not getting much traction with high wind shear in place. Likely last day before merging with front. Still, a trough hangs over South Florida, which likely brings additional rain chances to the region today. 14Jun24 8aEDT

Models continue to show possible tropical system or blob of scattered showers Bay of Campeche / West Gulf of Mexico early / mid next week. Could spread moisture across Mexico & Texas as generally moves W/WNW. NHC gives 30% chance of tropical development at this time. 12Jun2024

NHC continues to monitor a potential tropical system along the South Mexico - Guatemala coast this weekend into early next week. NHC currently gives it low 20% chance of tropical development. Should increase rain chances into the region. 12Jun2024 8pEDT/6pCST

Invest #90L continues to dump scattered copious amounts of rain in FL. NHC with low 20% tropical development chance off the Carolina coast to end the week. May increase rain chances to Nova Scotia - Newfoundland region this weekend. 12Jun2024 8pEDT/9pADT

Not hard to see the wind shear over invest #90L. Lower level clouds over North Florida moving WSW, upper level clouds blowing top of storms ENE. #FLwx 12Jun2024 6pEDT

NHC monitoring two areas: invest #90L near Tampa (20% tropical development chance, wind shear high off US East coast, but still heavy rains to FL region); area South of Mexico (20% chance). Some models hint at possible Bay of Campeche region next week(to be determined). 11Jun2024

NHC monitoring the possibility of a Low forming along a trough currently producing disorganized scattered rain in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. They give it 20% chance of tropical development off the Southeast US coast later this week into the weekend. 11Jun2024

CAG(Central American Gyre: General spin of weather over region) setting up. Increased rain chances. Can spin up ghost storms in models. Can actually spin out TC’s either side of Central America. If model watching look for consistency rather then random run to run storms. 10Jun24