Some like to post 'one model, not a forecast' hurricane doomsday model runs. Models are generally made up of multiple sub-models, run multiple times per day & can show completely different results each run. Models are not forecast. We look for consensus & consistency among models. The most consistent theme is slow potential development currently. This can change in the coming days. NHC forecast low (yellow) to medium (orange) development in the shaded areas for the coming week. 31Aug2024

Two areas being monitored for possible future development in the Atlantic for Labor Day (US holiday) next week. First nears Eastern Caribbean around Monday when could begin to develop (NHC 50% chance). New area coming off Africa 20%. 29Aug2024

Ghost of Tropical Depression #Gilma just Northeast of the Big Island. Scattered storms off to the Northeast of storm center. 29Aug2024

Tropical Storm #Hone now between Honolulu and Midway Island. Wind shear pushing storms off leaving a harmless cloud swirl. Models have it recovering though over open waters. 29Aug2024

Eye of Hurricane #Hone passing just South of Island of Hawai'i (the Big Island). #HIwx For latest storm info from NWS see: https://www.weather.gov/hfo/ & https://www.hurricanes.gov/
(Radar loop about 1:14a-1:32aHST; 414a-432aPDT; 714a-732aEDT Sun 25Aug2024)

Hurricane #Gilma (storm on right) continues to weaken. Expected to fall apart East of Hawaii next week.
Tropical Storm #Hone (near Hawaii) nice cloud swirl but lacking storms until those last few satellite frames.
See NWS Honolulu for latest storm stats / maps at https://www.hurricanes.gov/ and https://www.weather.gov/hfo/
#HIwx 23Aug2024

Did you know?
Central Pacific storm names don't rotate every six years like Atlantic and East Pacific.
Instead the next name on the list is used.
#Hone #HIwx 2024

Tropical Storm #Hone about 815miles(1,310km) ESE of Hilo, HI.
TS Watch Island of Hawai'i (Big Island). Wind, rain, waves impact portions of Hawaii this weekend into early next week.
NOAA & USAF Hurricane Hunter aircraft have arrived in Hawaii to help monitor.
#HIwx 22Aug2024

Hurricane #Gilma in Eastern Pacific looking impressive and far from any land.
Center about 1,060miles(1,705km) WSW tip of Baja peninsula.
About 1,980miles(3,185km) E of Hilo, HI.
Likely reaching peak intensity.
#HIwx 22Aug2024

Atlantic still quiet. Models say maybe check back towards next weekend / Labor Day(US holiday) perhaps. 2024 season currently average number of storms so far, but ahead on strength.
22Aug

Hurricane #Ernesto clipping Southeastern Newfoundland - St. John’s region Monday evening. 940pEDT/AST 19Aug2024

Hurricane #Ernesto made landfall on Bermuda early Saturday. Continues to pull away. 17Aug2024

Heavy rains, flooding, gusty winds as the tail of #Ernesto continues to moves across Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands.
14Aug2024 830aAST/EDT

Tropical Storm #Ernesto now pulling away from British Virgin Islands and Eastern Puerto Rico island of Culebra and entering the Atlantic. Long tail of storms reaches down into Caribbean Sea likely brings heavy rains and gusty winds to the region through the night. Could near Bermuda as a Hurricane Saturday. Models mostly turn out to sea early next week but could clip Nova Scotia / Newfoundland area.
13Aug2024

Tropical Storm #Ernesto a large breezy scattered storms blob Monday evening. Center a little elongated. Shouldn’t see any surprises overnight with that. Better conditions to finally begin strengthening near or as pulls away from Puerto Rico and turns more North.
12Aug2024 11pEDT/AST

Eastern Pacific looking quiet once more.

Atlantic with #PTC5 (so TS Watch can be issued). Fairly good model agreement for not having a defined center yet. NE Caribbean Tuesday, possible strengthening storm near Puerto Rico Wednesday, then turning up. #Bermuda
11Aug24

Scattered showers in the Central Atlantic may try to develop as nears the Leeward Islands / Puerto Rico region early to mid next week. NHC with high 70% chance of tropical development. Models are generally leaning towards turn North between US and Bermuda. Too early for specifics or how close though and subject to change. 9Aug24 #98L

Scattered showers to move along South Mexico coast this weekend. NHC with low 30% chance of tropical development. That chance likely decreases once South of tip of Baja peninsula early next week. 9Aug24

Looking for river level flood data after #Debby?

NOAA has an interactive site to help show current and predicted water level heights on an interactive map: https://water.noaa.gov/map

Infrared satellite shows some scattered storm clouds building East half of storm = building today’s scattered rains that will later pivot into the coast.
#Debby #scwx #ncwx #vawx
1030aEDT 7Aug24