Sunrise over invest #95L Friday 28Jun2024
Located about 1500miles(2414km) ESE of Windward Islands.
Moving West about 15-20mph(24-32km/h)
Continues to improve it's structure.

@Bliss Area in question is still disorganized scattered showers/storms. So no cone maps from NHC yet. Still have their outlook maps for potential development in mean time. NHC issues cone maps once a storm has actually formed or if Tropical Storm winds may reach land within 48hrs before storm actually forms (when they’re designated PTC status in that case).

FYI: One of the larger weather site/app issued their own 7-day #95L cone map. There is no official NHC cone map. While could lead to better products, it creates public confusion, may be different from official NHC, etc. Likely see more do their own thing as tech/graphics advance.

#94L & #95L Thursday satellite view.
(Infrared: colors represent colder cloud tops and likely storms underneath)
NHC with 30% tropical development chance 94L, high 90% on 95L as of 8pEDT 27Jun2024

If you’re ever looking for more storm information (including the why and why not of a storms current and potential future performance, location, etc.) I always highly recommend discussion videos from Tropical Tidbits: https://youtu.be/Ph7w9cTYEb8
#95L #94L
27Jun2024

@Pat_Walrond More later in the summer typically. We’ll see what new info the day may bring.

#94L & #95L with 30% & 70% tropical development chance respectfully from NHC.
~94L either side of Yucatan this weekend.
~95L near Windward Islands early next week.
Still far from US on 4July (holiday).
Reminder: Check dates on invest # as numbers repeat 90 through 99.
27Jun2024

@Pat_Walrond Looks like models now say it may find a favorable pocket to develop in this weekend as approaches the Eastern Caribbean to start the week. NHC with high 70% development chance as of Thursday AM.

@Pat_Walrond Yep, not often one develops this area for June!

NHC monitoring two regions for this weekend into early next week.
Invest #94L near ABC islands / Venezuela looked more robust today, not so much this evening.
Area near West Africa some models want to develop before reaching Caribbean next week. Dry SAL riding just North of it though.
25Jun2024

Another Low pressure in the Bay of Campeche this weekend brings additional rain chances into Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and Mexico region. NHC gives 50% chance of tropical designation with it. (Image: GFS model rainfall(mm) Friday evening into Monday morning). 21Jun2024

Watching Bay of Campeche this weekend then attention turns to the 'wave train' and some potential activity in the Southwest Caribbean later next week. (image: Precipitable water model helps visualize. Colors represent measure (inches) of water in the air/atmosphere). 21Jun2024

Invest #92L nearing the coast. Only about 30miles offshore. 21Jun2024 630pEDT #FLwx #GAwx

Air recon finds #92L center 120miles E of JacksonvilleFL, 35mph winds(Tropical Depression level). However, showers/storms are still doing their own thing ignoring the nearby Low pressure. NHC wants a little more cohesion before upgrading. These borderline systems, especially sloppy tilted ones, are usually at the discretion of the forecasters on duty. 21Jun2024 11aEDT #FLwx #GAwx #SCwx #NCwx

USAF have taken off from Biloxi, MS on their way to see if invest #92L has become better organized. Do we have a Tropical Depression (TD) or low end Tropical Storm (TS) this morning? Going to be close. Don't be alarmed if upgraded today, impacts really the same. 21Jun2024 630aEDT

Still watching for potential Alberto repeat in Bay of Campeche this weekend - next week. NHC with 60% tropical development chance.

Invest #92L off SE US trying as nears warmer Gulf Stream water current. Earlier air recon showed disorganized center. NHC 50% chance tropical designation before moving inland. Wouldn't take too much more to reach Depression (TD) status which would require NHC to release their full suite of products (cone map, TS Watch(maybe), etc.).
20Jun2024

Tropical Storm #Alberto dissipates over land. Still covering most of Mexico in cloud cover and much needed scattered rains. 20Jun2024

Invest #92L near the Bahamas. Nice little low level swirl but storms moving West instead of wrapping around storm. US Air Force hurricane hunters investigate later today to see what we have. 20Jun2024 915aEDT

Tropical Storm #Alberto continues to bring multiple impacts into Mexico and Texas region this evening including heavy scattered rains, tidal flooding, tornadoes & rough surf. Should center should move inland into Mexico overnight. 19Jun2024 #TXwx

Another Low pressure may form in the Bay of Campeche / Western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Could be another PTC / #Alberto repeat bringing additional rain chances into the region. NHC with 40% chance obtains tropical trouble status. 19Jun2024