Hurricane Hilary core winds over open water just Southwest of Mexico Thursday evening. Tropical Storm Warning & Tropical Storm & Hurricane Watch for parts of the Baja Peninsula for upcoming winds. Will weaken some before Baja, but heavy rains and flooding to come! 17Aug2023 8pPDT

Tropical Storm #Greg is no longer a tropical system as it passes well South of Hawaii and further out to sea. Just another Low now. 17Aug2023

Hurricane #Hilary now Cat1 with 75mph(120km/h) winds. Center about 320miles(515km) SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Watch for South tip of Baja Peninsula. With Watches issued, NHC now updates storm stats every 3 hours at 2,5,8&11am,pmPDT/EDT.
#CAwx #AZwx
5aPDT/8aEDT 17Aug2023

@MookyTroubadour Perfect! lol!

@dauphin87 Maybe it was a sleeper 🏎️

What about forecast for Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula?
NHC works with the government of Mexico to issue Watch and Warnings as necessary and helps convey potential impacts in their public advisory text.
16/16 - end thread.

Road not closed so its okay?
"Turn around don't drown!"
In large scale flood events authorities don't have the resources to monitor and close every single road that's flooded! Use common sense. If flooded just turn around. And don't drive around barricades in place.
15/16 #Hilary

"Turn Around, Don't Drown"
Did you know?
The majority of flood related deaths in the US are people in their cars??
If you can't see the road then you don't know it's still there, how deep, how fast, etc. And your cars computers are typically mounted low = easy to stall/fry them $

What are Key Messages?
There's a lot of storm information text, graphics and data. Key Messages graphics provide a brief summary of important information about a specific tropical system. This may include safety and storm hazard information, future track guidance, confidence, etc

Wait...why is Warning bad in weather but good when shiny blue lights are behind you while driving??

Yes, it's the opposite...

In Weather 'Watch' means ingredients in place to happen, but 'Warning' means it is occurring or imminent and to take action.
12/x #Hilary

Storm Surge Watch/Warning, when issued?
They are a time based issued alert for Storm Surge (Ocean rises, like it's own tide level) of 3ft or more

SS Watch: Surge possible within 48 hours or less.
SS Warning: Surge expected within 36 hours or less.
(does not include wave heights)

What's Hurricane Watch/Warning, when issued?
They are a time based issued alert for Hurricane winds of 74mph or greater.

Hurricane Watch: Winds possible within 48 hours or less.
Hurricane Warning: Winds expected within 36 hours or less.
#Hilary
10/x

What's Tropical Storm Watch/Warning, when issued?
They are a time based issued alert for Tropical Storm winds of 39mph or greater.

TS Watch: Winds possible within 48 hours or less.
TS Warning: Winds expected within 36 hours or less.
#Hilary
9/x

Wind speed probability maps can help show percent chance of seeing 39mph or higher winds due to a tropical system. Keep in mind this is just winds from a tropical system...it won't show winds from other sources that may occur here. Check with local NWS for additional information.

The arrival time of winds map can help tell you when winds of 39mph or higher starting time may occur due to a tropical system. For the US East coast, that's enough wind speed to start to cause downed trees, scattered power outages.
7/x

Why is top 'S' dot white for Monday while others darker?
The dark S (Tropical Storm), dark H (Hurricane), dark M (Major Hurricane (Cat3+)) are tropical system intensities.

White dot means not expected to be 'tropical' anymore, just a regular old Low. Impacts same/similar though.

Cone map?
Probably the most recognized tropical cyclone product. Reminder the cone size is not the storm size/strength, it's just the average error that far out in time where center point may be. Impacts will be felt well outside & ahead of this 'cone'
#Hilary 16Aug2023 8pPDT
5/x

Weather Apps?
In more dynamic situations seek an actual human. Apps are great for helping push Warnings out to you and general day to day, but for complex tropical system impacts you're better off with a pro.
4/x

NHC works with local partners to disseminate storm information. This includes different levels of gov and National Weather Service(NWS). Your local NWS office can give you specific storm threats for your location. Visit: https://weather.gov
enter city/zip in top left box.
3/x

Updates: Who/When:
All US Tropical Storm / Hurricane updates come from US National Hurricane Center(NHC). Apps/news use their info. Updates every 6hrs at 2 & 8a/pPDT. If Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch/Warning issued for land then they update every 3hrs. https://hurricanes.gov