Central Pacific 13Aug2023:
-Hurricane #Fernanda expected to weaken later this week, it's remnants may bring rain chances to Hawaii around 21Aug(+/-)
-Invest #99e expected to develop & move West, just South of Hawaii this week.

~Both not expected to cause high winds for Hawaii~

NHC monitoring tropical waves coming off Africa. Currently 2 areas, both low 20% development chance next 7 days. They'll be fighting dry air (SAL) also emerging into the Atlantic. EURO/GFS models say if develop then at weeks end but not really showing anything specific. 13Aug2023

Hurricane Dora truly was an explorer traveling from North Africa to past Hawaii, unfortunately helping winds spread devastating fires... We are with you Hawaii 💔

Watching 3 potential systems in the Eastern and Central Pacific this week. One likely passes to the South of Hawaii, another may fall apart well East of Hawaii, and another form along Southwest Mexico. Precipitable Water image model thru Friday (amount of water in the air)12Aug23

Hurricane #Dora started it's journey mid July. Scattered showers moved off North Africa into the Atlantic where it was monitored for possible tropical development, finally developing just South of Mexico. Eventually traveling South of Hawaii and now into the Western Pacific. 12Aug2023

Hurricane #Dora is now a Typhoon (Hurricane, Typhoon and Cyclone the same, just different name in areas of the world) traveling between Midway, Wake, and Johnston Atoll. 12Aug2023

The Atlantic may try and stir this week in the form of Tropical Waves emerging off of Africa. These scattered shower blobs will also be traveling with a large dust outbreak though, which will likely keep any from developing, but we'll watch. Dust model 12Aug thru Saturday 19Aug:

As of 10Aug2023 the Atlantic’s current tally is:
Named: 5 (including January’s unnamed)
Hurricanes: 1 (Don)
Major Hurricanes: 0

Average date to have 5 named storms is by 22Aug, average first hurricane is 11Aug.

Season about to ramp up historically.

NOAA/NHC have revised their hurricane outlook for the Atlantic, now calling for above normal activity. (Seasonal predictions updated each August, original released in May).
14-21 Names storms (was 12-17)
6-11 Hurricanes (was 5-9)
2-5 Major Hurricanes(Cat3+) (was 1-4)
10Aug2023

Atlantic still looking quiet into next week. 9Aug2023

Hawaii caught between Hurricane #Dora well to the Southwest and a strong High Pressure to the North resulting in high winds from the pressure gradient that generated helping spread wild fires this week. Dry air (oranges/yellows in water vapor satellite image below) 9Aug23 #HIwx

Tropical Storm #Eugene is mostly just a swirl of clouds well off the CA/Mexico border in the Eastern Pacific and is now considered Post-Tropical. No more advisories will be issued as of Monday. May have indirectly helped increase moisture into the SW US. 9Aug2023 #CAwx #AZwx

This ⬇️ is exactly why I don’t show Hurricane models over a week out. Model skill drops considerably with specific events 7+ days out.

(Below pic: A tweet from Ed Piotrowski pointing out how a weather model 12 days ago showed a large hurricane near the Carolina’s when in fact no storm formed and weather was mostly sunny, to not trust models too far out in time)

Tiny but powerful Hurricane #Dora well SE of Hawaii. Cat4 storm at 140mph(220km/h) winds has developed into an annular hurricane, characterized by tire/doughnut shape with no distinct rain bands. Tend to maintain strength. Will pass safely South of HI, bring waves🌊🏄‍♀️6Aug23 #HIwx

Tropical Storm #Eugene forms along the Southwest Mexico coast in the Eastern Pacific. Expected to be short lived as will reach cooler waters and dry air by mid week. 5Aug2023

Hurricane #Dora has restrengthened to 130mph (215km/h) Cat4 near the Eastern & Central Pacific boundary(140W). Continues Westward movement which will take it safely by Hawaii to the South. Waves 10ft+ possible near land early this week. 11aHST/5pEDT, 5Aug2023 #hiWX

Sunrise over Hurricane #Dora in the Eastern Pacific. Will pass to the South of Hawaii Monday / Tuesday bringing wave action. 4Aug2023 #HIwx

Atlantic remains quiet for now. 4Aug2023

Hurricane #Dora in the Eastern Pacific has rapidly intensified into a 125mph (205km/h) Cat3.

Out to sea, expected to pass safely South of Hawaii next week. Will bring wave action to the islands though most of next week. #HIwx 5pHST,11pEDT 2Aug2023

The Atlantic once more is quiet. Will continue to watch tropical waves move off Africa and for any “homegrown” storms near the Southeast US coast / Northern Caribbean regions for next week+ out for now. Wednesday evening 2Aug2023.