At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 82.2 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).

On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.