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There is a pervasive myth that independent voters determine elections. More "identify" as independents in polling. But most of those routinely vote D or R. (They don't behave as independents; they just prefer the label.)

Only 7% don't lean either way and a lot of them don't usually vote.

Elections are driven mostly by turnout. 55% are D or independents who routinely vote D.

Source:

pewresearch.org/politics/2019/

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