Here is a table of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) components. If you didn't see my post earlier, December GDP surprised to the upside, again, coming at 2.9%, above the 2.6% estimate. That is down from 3.2% GDP growth in the third quarter, but still a bullish surprise. December durable goods orders popped higher, +5.6% m/m vs. +2.5% est. & -1.7% prior (rev up from -2.1%) … however, ex-transportation orders -0.1% vs. -0.2% est. & +0.1% prior #CoSoFinance

U.S. GDP growth surprises to the upside for a second quarter in a row. Economists warn not to expect an upside surprise next time. I guess we'll see. @LizYoungStrat explains that Q4 GDP grew 2.9% q/q, above 2.6% est. One important point is that residential investment fell by 26.7%, offset by big growth in inventories. Yes, we are in a housing recession. The rest of the economy keeps chugging along, partly due to stimulus payments. #CoSoFinance #CoSoEconomics https://t.co/AjAsuV0uwk

Looks maybe 60-40 on the bullish side. It's constructive that the S&P 500 #SPX closed above the downtrend, but it needs to follow through on higher volume. Otherwise, the bears will get their turn again.

That burn is going to sting.

If "everyone has to look at everything," then let's look at repealing Trump's tax cuts for the filthy rich, rather than cutting social security and medicare. #CoSoFinance #CoSoPolitics https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/01/24/gop-social-security-medicare-debt-limit/

I just made this chart in response to a subscriber question. My working price target on $REMX is $132. It needs to break out through the downtrend first, though. Could be plenty of back-and-forth before that happens. #CoSoFinance #RareEarths

Bespoke reports that the year over year change in M2 Money Supply went negative in December -- for the first time ever! #CoSoFinance https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1617945866190340097/photo/1

Real-time Darwinism playing out before our very eyes, kids.

Meanwhile, on a year over year basis, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell again in December, -7.4% vs. -6.1% in prior month. This is consistent with prior recessions. #CoSoFinance

The Leading Economic Indicators Index from ⁦the @Conferenceboard was⁩ down 1% month over month in December. Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders points out that this is the third consecutive month of at least a 1% fall, which hasn’t happened since the Great Financial Crisis. #CoSoFinance

“An astounding 40% of Russell 2000 companies were unprofitable last year. You have to wonder what’s going to happen to these companies in a world where higher interest rates may mean greater rationing of capital vs the freely and cheaply available flood of funding of most of the past decade,” says Callum Thomas, head of research at Topdown Charts, providing the below chart from @MichealAArouet

#CoSoFinance

Markets are definitely buying into the "China is back" theme. We're tracking the strongest inflow into China since 2020 (orange). That's coming at the expense of the rest of emerging markets, as investors increase their allocations to China and cut their allocations everywhere else. But how long will this trend last? #CoSoFinance

Robin Brooks says: "German industry is undergoing a massive shift and retooling. Whole sectors of production have become unprofitable and certain product lines have been shut down, never to reopen. Chemicals and pharmaceuticals are the prime example. Output is down -15% from a year ago." I'll point out that this is good news for U.S. industry, as German industry relocates to a source of cheap energy (the U.S.). Also, stronger Chinese demand will boost European trade significantly #CoSoFinance

This week's economic data releases, with estimates and prior readings #CoSoFinance

From Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co.: Year over year change in median price for an existing home in U.S. has eased back to +2.3%, which is largely in line with longer-term average ... additional weakness may depress figure further if activity continues to struggle. My view: with the Fed promising more rate hikes, it will be hard to avoid a housing recession #CoSoFinance

Daily $SPX chart shows the S&P 500 got a hard slap when it tried to push above that downtrend last week. But it bounced off support. I expect it will try again. Overall, more bullish than bearish. We need to see resolution for bulls or bears soon. #CoSoFinance

We need to look at two #silver charts. The daily chart (left) shows the metal is trending sideways, to break one way or the other. The weekly chart shows the previous breakout that happened in December. Closing in on first target of $26.50. After that, maybe $30?

Weekly #platinum chart. Still working on a breakout. We'll see.

Weekly #gold chart shows a breakout with a working target of $2,139

$Copper is pulling back today, but the weekly chart shows a breakout that should take it to $5 or even $5.50. #CoSoFinance