Reposted to updated numbers, add another chart and a link. 33% of all our debt came under Trump. Never forget how corrupt that part is. Reagan increased the debt by 186%. Bush doubled it and this is their issue. #CoSoFinance https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-debt-by-president-by-dollar-and-percent-3306296 #CoSoPolitics

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Rents might finally, FINALLY be cooling. Rent Index from ⁦Zillow ticked higher month over month in December, but 0.1% gain quite mild in face of significant increases from 2021 into 2022. Also the number of new multi-family units being built is soaring, and is now at the highest level since 1973. #CoSoFinance

Some time ago, I said you might want to hold off buying a used car until June. But the way inflation in this industry is cooling -- in fact, I'd say used cars are on the brink of their own recession -- means there should be affordable values on the dealer lot pretty soon. Maybe February. Prices rose marginally in January; price cuts are probably around the corner. #CoSoFinance https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html

Despite today's weak bounce in the buck, the dollar downtrend continues. A fight over the debt ceiling probably doesn't help. Is this fuel for gold and silver going higher? Hell, yeah! #CoSoFinance

Here's another sign that the big bull market in energy stocks -- which my subscribers have enjoyed the past two years -- still has room to run. Despite massive outperformance relative to S&P 500 in 2022, the Energy sector’s weight in overall index is only back to where it was a few years ago #Energy #oil #CoSoFinance

I mentioned the drop in existing home sales earlier. In December, those sales were down -1.5% m/m vs. -3.4% est. & -7.9% prior (rev down from -7.7%). Importantly, as you can see on this chart, the level is now back to where it was in 2010. The market is definitely cooling. Is it in recession, though? I think so. #CoSoFinance

From Ryan Detrick: Your average January for the S&P 500 tends to be a tad weak for about a week or so, before strength late in the month. #CoSoFinance

From
Charlie Bilello: US Building Permits hit a 31-month low in December, down 30% year-over-year. Tends to be a leading indicator for the economy, recessionary signals continue to build. #CoSoFinance

If you're still on the blue bird site, here's a good follow.

Another Producer Price Index (PPI) chart: You can see a plunge in 6m annualized % change for PPI … from peak of +25.3% to now -5.5%. That's right. Negative. That doesn't mean all prices are falling (though many are). But the rate of increase has fallen off a cliff. #CoSoFinance

#Inflation is rolling over. PPI inflation for finished goods continues to fall, with year/year rate coming down to +9% in December #CoSoFinance

Yesterday, we heard that Christmas retail sales were terrible. But were they really? Even though retail sales lost momentum heading into end of 2022, they increased by 7.2% throughout entire year, which was strongest (nominal) annual gain since 2004 (if excluding huge post-lockdown jump in 2021). As to why sales dipped in December -- I'd look at the end of Child Tax Credit payments #CoSoFinance

Via Steve Rattner: Average deposits held by the bottom half of American households more than tripled from 2019 to 2022, as pandemic aid & rapid wage growth have created unprecedented breathing room on household balance sheets (even amid high inflation). #CoSoFinance

the Child Tax Credits, in which the IRS sent families half of their 2021 Child Tax Credit as monthly payments of $250 or $300 per child, did more to lift Americans out of poverty than any program since the Great Society. Naturally, it was killed because Republicans hate the poors. Still, the wealth effect lingers. #CoSoFinance

Got #Gold? A breakdown of global central bank gold reserves shows U.S. way out in front in terms of nominal reserves; yet, as a percent of total reserves, France and Germany are catching up #CoSoFinance

The U.S. Federal Reserve HATES low jobless claims and strong jobs numbers. The Fed isn't satisfied by falling inflation. It wants to see rising unemployment, with all that entails -- poverty, misery, desperation.
The latest: Initial jobless claims at 190k vs. 214k est. & 205k in prior week; continuing claims at 1.647M vs. 1.655M est. & 1.63M prior … greatest increases in CA (+4.6k), KY (+2.6k), & ID (+316); greatest decreases in NY (-17.2k), MI (-5.5k), & GA (-5.1k)

The S&P 500 was rejected soundly at its first attempt to push up through the downtrend, but most first tries are rejected. It could still push higher. Give it some time. #CoSoFinance

I made this chart for a report we're publishing in Japan. Global silver production actually rose in 2021 and 2022. Still below its old highs, and it's likely we hit "peak silver." These numbers come from the Silver Institute.

My latest column: Eat My Dust, S&P https://weissratings.com/en/wealth-wave/eat-my-dust-s-p Wealth Megatrends had a good 2022. #CoSoFinance