Step 1: Order lifetime supply of some microcontroller that happens to be in stock.
Step 2: Start product design.
This is the crazy time we're in.
So, I'm starting on a personal project. I picked the ATmega16U4 because a few hundred were in stock at Digi-Key yesterday. Well, today they're gone! Mouser had 45 in stock, so I just ordered 25. I only need 3 of the damn things for an OSH Park board run, but who knows when I'll be able to get more?
Now, how cynical should I be? Should I put off beginning the board design until the box actually arrives? And what about every other component in the design? That's just the microcontroller I plan to use.