This is not the update I want to post, but June 21st has been an unequivocally bad day for #Ukraine.
Russia has made significant advances in the East, capturing Toshkivka, Vrubivka, Pidlisne & Myrna Dolyna. They are now ~4km from Lysychansk (the city across the river from Severodonetsk).
UAF forces are in significant danger of being encircled in multiple areas if they do not pull back quickly enough.
The first map shows what is likely significant area denial by UAF artillery.
#Ukraine is likely in the process of pulling their troops back to secondary or tertiary lines, and the concentration of fire you see on that first map is their artillery making sure the Russian's can't remain in contact as they retreat.
It is difficult to say just what changed to allow this sudden, large success by Russian forces. It could simply be that enough of their units finished "reconstituting" to allow them to make a large, simultaneous push.
It is also possible (though I would say pretty unlikely) that this is a deliberate "collapse" by #Ukraine to get Russia to overextend - at which point they would counterattack savagely.
It does reduce the size of the UAF defensive line, which in turn concentrates their forces better, but I think it's a bit optimistic to believe they intentionally gave up in 4 different directions at once.
It is very important for #Ukraine to not allow Russia to gain initiative from these successes. We know they have very substantially built-up secondary lines of defense. They need to be able to hold those and continue to bleed Russian forces.
It isn't *all* bad news for Ukraine, though. They continue to have limited success around Kherson, and have struck Snake Island yet again. They also made minor gains near Kharkiv. None of that is anything to write home about, but it isn't nothing.
To conclude:
Overall, today has been one of the worst days for #Ukraine since the major invasion culminated in March. It isn't the end of the world, they still have all the advantages they've always had, but it's definitely been a tough day.
UA morale was already starting to flag in the East and today will not have helped. Now would be a good time for some Western nations to re-pledge their support and announce additional aid.
As always, I invite @Render to fill in the gaps I've left.
Ukr 17th Tank Brigade is still north of that hole in the line, but it and all other Ukr units on the east and south sides of the pocket are now fighting in two directions. And being shelled from three directions.
Ukr does still have reserves, quite a few in fact. But getting them into the front line, and keeping them supplied while there remains an issue.
Upside is most if not all of the self-propelled 155mm guns from the West have arrived behind that front...
@jgold The ammo dump explosions behind Russian lines have reduced the amount that the Russians are firing, especially in the 122mm gun and rocket calibers.
This, combined with those western 155mm's, is what's preventing the Russians from achieving a full scale break out into the open country beyond the Donetsk river valley.
Both sides have been bold with their attempts to use air strikes in this battle. And it's cost the Russians dearly with at least 2 Su-25's confirmed being shot down.
@jgold Southern face of the pocket is collapsing. Russians shoved 14 BTG's into the dividing line between the worn out Ukr 112th Territorial Defense and the equally worn out Ukr 24th Mech Brigade.
24th's withdrawal was orderly and although their part of the line bent back almost 90 degrees, it's still doing damage to the Russians.
112th Territorial doesn't seem to exist any longer. In its place is a hole that exposes the right flank of the Lysychansk - Sievierodonetsk defenses.
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