"This has only happened 3 times in 150 years, so we know it has a low chance..."
Maybe? That might be true, but not based on what's being pointed out. That's not really how probability works. I have dyscalculia. I only get so many math points per week. It's Friday, but I'm not wasting the points on explaining something I know the person doesn't want to understand.
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The math points are a joke in our house because sometimes I can accurately do mental math, or I have better than common understanding of a concept, that everyone else in the house is just left with, "That's...um...no math for me right now!"