Ukraine update...
Kherson bridge head remains under OPSEC rules. Ukrainian forces are still massed on the northern end of the bridge head and seem content to slowly grind away at the Russian positions as those slowly melt away. Russians declared that the civilian "evacuation" of the bridge head area is over. Probably because the Ukrainians are well within 155mm artillery range of the non-functional bridges and are shelling the temporary barge bridge and ferry landings with impunity.
...
Russian reinforcements into the bridge head area remain a combination of fresh conscripts and Chechens, both in small numbers.
The Russians did run a couple of fuel pipelines across the broken railway bridge, but then helpfully showed a video of them. Those pipelines are now kaput.
-
On the southern front the pattern of small probes and artillery duels continues with neither side having the manpower to do a real offensive. I expect that to change in Ukrainian favor at some point.
...
On the eastern front Donbas is still more of the same. The Russians sending DNR conscripts up against well dug in Ukrainian positions and getting massacred for no gains.
Ukrainian 93rd Mech Brigade (tank division) remains in this area, just north of Bahkmut and refusing to bend.
Further north Ukr is still slowly enveloping Svatove and has troops across the north/south highway above and below that town.
...
From Svatove north the Russians are slowly pulling out what remains of the BAR reserve units and conscript formations and replacing them with elements of 1st Guards Tank Army, which has been rebuilt for the fourth or fifth time (I've lost count).
We know this because as DefMon reports, the Ukrainians claimed some 36 tanks destroyed in this area in the last 48hrs (with video to back up much of that). At least some of those tanks were brand new T-90's.
...
Finale...
I'm just guessing at this part but I believe that across all fronts the Russians currently have more ad-hoc units (Wagner, Chechens, DPR/LPR conscripts, BAR reserve, National Guard) than regular Russian Army units (including airborne and naval infantry).
I also believe that with the exception of 1st GTA what remains of the regular Russian Army in Ukraine is mostly fresh conscripts just 72hrs away from sleeping in their own homes.
EOL
Questions?
@Render any way to tell how prepared for winter each side is?
@thechriskidd The Ukrainians are on home turf. Warming centers and fresh winter uniforms are on hand. While they are as well prepared as they can be, they are still taking (and will still need) additional donations of winter uniforms and other cold weather gear.
Images from the Russian side shows many still in patchwork mismatched summer uniforms. Last Winter most of the regular Russian units had cold weather uniforms but there were obvious shortages. I expect that to be worse this winter.
@Render I think I would plan a Washington crosses the Delaware attack on something the Russians have well defended in January. If they are freezing the defenses will surely be degraded. The Ukrainians have been tactically superior so far so it wont surprise me that they will try to take advantage of their lack of cold weather supplies. Thanks for the updates they are great.