Russian forces have likely committed to reinforcing their tactical offensive effort in the Bakhmut area despite #Ukraine’s apparent focus on limited and localized counterattacks. 🧵
Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed on May 16 that Russian forces have strengthened their forces in the Bakhmut area to stabilize the situation...
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@criticalthreats
: http://isw.pub/UkrWar051623
...and a prominent Russian milblogger claimed that four unspecified Russian battalions have deployed to the flanks around Bakhmut to prevent Ukrainian breakthroughs.
The Russian MoD claimed on May 16 that elements of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps) repelled 10 Ukrainian counterattacks near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut).
Russian claims about Russian reinforcements are consistent with Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s May 15 statement that Russian forces are deploying additional airborne (VDV) forces to defend Bakhmut’s flanks, presumably from other areas of the front.
R forces have continued to make marginal gains within Bakhmut itself as of May 16, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to claim that Russian forces around Bakhmut are focused on repelling Ukrainian counterattacks.
Ukrainian military officials continue to indicate that #Ukraine is pursuing much more limited operations in the Bakhmut area than Russian forces, who appear to be committed to Bakhmut as a renewed main effort.
ISW has geolocated footage published on May 16 of Ukrainian positions in southwestern Bakhmut that suggests that Ukrainian forces have recently made limited gains in the city itself.
Geolocated footage published on May 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces made marginal gains east of Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), although ISW has not observed any further Ukrainian gains around Bakhmut as of May 16.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16-2023
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@WeThePeople I've been reading the ISW posts and think they're great. I'm not grokking why R is so gung-ho on Bakhmut. Looking at the map, I'm not seeing interesting GLOCs for either side. Reckon U is tying up R so they can eventually take a crack at Kremmina and Svatove? If U can get either or both, I think that puts a crimp in R's GLOCs. The "and then what" isn't obvious to me. Bakhmut makes no sense, other than being a meat grinder for R.