Need to start a new WW3 thread (last one has gotten unwieldy).

This, (Konrad's latest position map), is a good place to start.

Missing are the Belarus army, most of which is stationed on the Latvian/Lithuanian borders. And two brigades in Transnistria (yellow line). 22nd Corp in Crimea is a coastal defense unit. Part of 49th Army is also in Crimea.

I think that 1st Tank Army may be positioned too far forward and south in the line. I have it behind 6th and 20th Armies.

Remember this guy? The last US soldier to leave Afghanistan, commander of the 82nd ABN Div. He's with his troops in Poland now.

Russia is flying in the non-contract (conscripts) troops to man all of that equipment.

Rosgardia is Putin's new (2016) National Guard outfit, 300,000+ troops meant for border guard and internal security. They'll probably be used for occupation troops.

US ISR (intel, surveil, recon) border flights.

RC-135 is an ELINT sniffer, passively sucking up every radio/cell/electronic communication within its range.

E-8 is JSTARS, a giant dual side looking ground search radar. It can detect tanks in the open at about 200km.

ARTEMIST is the US Army's new ground search/ELINT plane.

P-8 is a sea surface search/anti-sub aircraft (ASW).

Russian Atlantic task force at exercises. Video is from the Slava class cruiser.

The Soviet era open bridge is a death trap. Soviet/Russian ships are wet, especially in high seas. The 1990's graphics (.44sec) are awful.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxTRZcL78O8

All of the active air fields in Crimea are packed with fighters, fighter-bombers, attack aircraft, helicopters, and support/cargo planes.

That they are visible in Google Earth Sat views has several meanings.

1: They're out of covered hanger space.

2: They don't care if those aircraft are seen.

3: They're not planning on small airstrikes with limited targets. They're going to hit everything with everything when they come.

A word about Russian logistics (and why I think the impending Russian offensive is limited to Ukraine, and maybe not all of Ukraine).

Feeding the Bear: A Closer Look at Russian Army Logistics and the Fait Accompli (article is from November of last year, and aimed towards Baltic/Poland scenarios, but the principles remain.)

https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

If I lived in an Eastern European NATO country, I wouldn't be feeling all that reassured or defended by this.

Russian-Belarusian maneuvers at the Brestky training area in Belarus.

Report from German media that the Russian Baltic & Northern Fleet amphibious ships that transited the Channel, & arrived at Tartus in Syria a couple of days ago, have requested passage through the Bosphorus into the Black Sea.

This should give the Russian Black Sea Fleet most, if not all the lift capacity to deliver the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade ashore, should that be required.

...

There seems to be no news (as yet) of a request for the similarly recently arrived cruiser Varyag, flagship of the Pacific Fleet, to make the journey too, though the Black Sea Fleet has Varyag's sister Moskva as its flagship,which might be considered sufficient over match.

The 3rd Slava class is still in the Atlantic, southwest of Ireland.

Big Peter remains in port.

The Russian Baltic & Northern Fleet amphibious ships have already left Tartus port Syria, potentially to carry out the exercises with Varyag that had been announced, before the first group makes the Bosporus passage on Tuesday.

Per Fox News...

In closed door briefings in the House and Senate last week, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Mark Miley told lawmakers Kyiv could fall within 72 hours, at a cost of 4,000 Russian troop deaths and 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths, multiple congressional sources say.

Per Render...

That is indeed one very possible option.