#ukraine

It's update time again...

As with previous updates we'll be starting in the north and working our way south to The Corner and then west to the Dnieper river line.

Also, please hold your questions and comments until the end of the thread so that it doesn't break the thread.
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All maps and unit locations are courtesy of Defmon3 and his happy crew of geolocaters. Because quite simply after one year of war his maps are the very best OSINT available for free. Although I sometimes disagree with Defmon3's analysis/projections I do very highly recommend reading his daily updates (you don't have to log in to or even have a Twitter account to read someones timeline).

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There has been an increase in the usual cross border shelling north of Kharkiv by the Russians, but no sign of any cross border attack towards Kharkiv as the Ukrainian units (mostly Territorial Defense brigades) appear to outnumber the Russian units facing them in this area.

Ukraine's 2022 Fall counter offensive left the Ukrainians holding a line running roughly north to south along or east of the Oskill river. This makes every bridge over the Oskill river of strategic value.

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The 2 northernmost bridges are a highway bridge and a rail bridge at Dvorichna. North of these bridges to the Russian border the Ukrainians hold only the west side of the Oskill river. The Russians are trying to push the Ukrainian units that are south and east of those bridges back across the river and to retake those 2 bridges.

The next two road and rail bridges about ten miles to the south are at Kupyansk, which is also a major road and rail hub that the Russians would really like to retake.

Moving further south the Russians are still trying to push the Ukrainians away from artillery range of Svatove, but they don't seem to be trying all that hard and it may be that Russian attacks in this area are simply to provide cover as they rotate the shattered remnants of the volunteer, mobilized, and conscript units out of the line replacing them with rebuilt regular army, Guards, and airborne units. As mentioned in a previous update none of these units should be considered elite in any way.

Next stop on our southward journey is Kreminna. Another location where Russian volunteer and reserve (BARS) units spent several months being eaten alive by Ukrainian forces and have now been replaced by a hodgepodge of regulars, Guards, and airborne units. Here the Russian rebuilt units had some initial success in pushing the Ukrainians back a short distance but are taking huge casualties to do so.

Bakhmut. Still Ukrainian as of the time of this posting. The surviving Wagner units are being withdrawn and replaced by Russian regular and airborne units. Some Wagner elements do remain in the area. Russians are still slowly outflanking the city to the north and south but taking massive losses for every inch gained.

If I was in command of Ukr forces in Bahkmut I would have already withdrawn. But the Ukr command seems to think that they can cut off the flanking spearheads.

Donetsk line. Despite almost constant attacks all along the line it's still pretty much where it was prior to the invasion.

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Now we've arrived at the corner (between eastern front and southern front). Marinka and Vuhledar. Despite very large attacks the Russians have yet to take any ground at all. Russian losses in this region are (by my own estimate) equal to 3 possibly 4 entire brigades of troops and vehicles. They desperately need to push the Ukrainians away from artillery range of the rail hub at Volnovakha.

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