Follow
I would be remiss if I didn't provide the following warning about 2021:
The first months of this year are going to suck like never before. At Christmas there were about 6M cases of COVID that are less than 30 days old - a 50% increase from 4M on Thanksgiving where
2 weeks later daily deaths had increased 43% to 2300 from 1600.
We hit ~2700 deaths at Christmas.
W/ 6M cases, at the same rate, we're looking at 3860 deaths **per day** after Jan 8th.
And, it's probably not going to be linear.
@corlin Excellent find! Thanks!
I decided to avoid predictive models after a few months into the pandemic. But, I'm OK with reviewing others' work and making simplistic assessments of the future! Somehow this makes me *feel* a little more in control.
@jurban
There is this COVID prediction site, I like a lot. What it does is take all the models out there, and weights them, then puts them together into an "Ensemble". It only looks 4 weeks in advance, because anything longer than that is bullshit....
Also complete details of each model available, if your a data nerd.
It comes out every Tuesday.
https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/