As it stands right now, #Ukraine can’t compete in artillery duels, and RU has fallen back on their old doctrine of massive arty strikes to force UA troops out of an area, followed by small reconnaissance in force pushes by infantry to capture the area. But this is all contingent on RU having artillery superiority. What’s the best way to counter artillery? Longer range artillery.

3/5

Once #Ukraine troops are fully trained on the NATO artillery, and it makes its way to the front lines, the momentum of battle is going to swing drastically. UA will outrange RU arty, and will very easily be able to push those small RU recon forces back out of everything they’ve “captured” this past week. UA will continue to have the morale, armor, and manpower advantages as well.

4/5

TL;DR: #Ukraine is doing exactly what they need to be doing right now. They just need to stall for time until their new weapons come online. Every loss they inflict on RU right now is nearly irreplaceable. As long as they don’t throw their own forces away, UA will be able to pretty easily retake everything they’re ceding to RU right now.

5/5

Oops! One thing I forgot to touch on: This is the first step in a much larger effort to transition #Ukraine to Western-caliber systems. In particular, right now, this means 155mm artillery. Politically this has some pretty huge implications, as it will break UA’s dependence on Soviet-era, Russian supplied, systems. It will politically cement UA firmly in the NATO camp, and ensure much more effective support for them going forward.

6/5

@jgold I am interested in any news about Ukraine

@EllieOlree this thread may interest you as well, then:
https://counter.social/@jgold/108160216753935085

@EllieOlree @jgold you’ll like @Render as well

@Groovyeli @jgold @Render I did follow them.

@jgold The challenge is that while M777s are great pieces of kit they are extremely vulnerable to counterbattery fire and that is a bit disconcerting. However, it seems like there's a lot of push to get eastern European self-propelled artillery to Ukraine along with towed guns and that helps.

Their trading ground for time is going to undo the Russians, because they can't manage the supply lines needed to hold ground. And Ukr SOF is all over them at night it seems.

@NickTheSkydiver You're entirely correct. However, I would expect the M777s to be employed almost exclusively as counter battery for the immediate future, rather than "offensive" artillery, which will be the domain of the self-propelled systems. #Ukraine won't want to employ them where they are at risk.

You are also right about the UA SOF. They are doing a spectacular job. The writing is on the wall for Russia, now that the world has finally got off their collective asses.

@jgold that's the discussion I was just having with my gunner friends, that they'll likely be used for counterbattery fires and largely kept masked except for that purpose. The SP stuff they're likely to get is also really capable. Especially the PzH2000.

@NickTheSkydiver @jgold I read that the Russians are fighting in weird timed periods, like on the clock, whereas the UKr’s are 24/7

@Groovyeli @NickTheSkydiver I believe this is because the vast majority of their troops are neither trained nor equipped for night fighting.

UA, on the other hand, has been training their troops in it since 2014, and has received thousands of pieces of night vision equipment since the start of the war.

The night truly belongs to Ukraine.

@jgold @NickTheSkydiver that is such a hopeful thing!

@jgold @Groovyeli This is my understanding, from people who would know.

@NickTheSkydiver @jgold thanks! It us ;t easy piecing together what’s happening. I heard last night that auto insurance DB;s we’re hacked & now they have to be careful not to gave cars tied to people tied to addresses!

@jgold @Groovyeli I was involved in training both the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine in 2018 and they definitely had a lot of motivated, smart people who wanted to learn how to be better at their job defending their country. They knew they needed to develop a strong NCO corps and leaders who understood how to plan and sustain operations effectively. That is a big part of what differentiates them from the Russian orcs.

@NickTheSkydiver @Groovyeli This has been my experience in the cyber domain as well. Ukrainians and Estonians take things very seriously, and *want* to improve. They see no reason at all that they can't be world class, and they are willing to put in the time, money, and effort to get there.

I can't express how happy I am that everyone was wrong about their chances against Russia.

@jgold @Groovyeli it's been a very pleasant surprise

@NickTheSkydiver @jgold that is so cool. I’m 1/2 Finnish, our feelings on RU are genetically wired in. I’m thrilled they are exposed for the 3rd rate, 3rd world military/gov they are. Hopefully this threatening us with their crappy nukes (which I hope backfires on them) just stops

@Groovyeli @jgold Getting Finland and Sweden into NATO definitely is yet another own goal for Putin.

@NickTheSkydiver @jgold I’m hoping that moves fas. Faster then June. My Dad’s fathers family is from the area that stretches from Oulu, Simo, Kuusamo and our namesake town. Hoping it does not again get invaded by Russians (centuries of hell with them)

@jgold that’s great

@jgold
The image of a saw comes to mind.
In one direction it slides over the wood.
In the other it cut the wood.
Back and forth with destruction in one direction - towards Russia.