Britain Sends New Weapons To Ukraine As U.S., Germany Warn Russia, Urge Diplomacy
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-germany-diplomacy/31658111.html
Canada sends small special forces detachment to Ukraine amid tensions with Russia: report
All six of the Baltic Fleet's Ropucha class landing ships have left the Baltic and are reportedly heading for Odessa on the Black Sea. Each can carry up to ten tanks and 340 troops. Assuming the destination is accurately reported it will take them between 10 to 14 days to arrive. Unknown what the cargo is. I'm assuming brigade strength elements of one of the five Motor Rifle Regiments of 18th Guards Motor Rifle Division.
This followed the exercises that alarmed Sweden.
Cyber attacks on Ukraine continuing with a wave of bomb threats called into schools and government buildings.
German foreign minister Baerbock says it is difficult not to assess the Russian military build-up as a threat.
UK shipments of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine continuing.
This is a strategic mistake.
If this goes live (as I expect that it will sooner rather than later) and the Russians win (as I expect that they will without drastic strategic changes), the Russians will thank us for the contribution to their arsenals.
C-17 Loads Of Anti-Tank Missiles Arrive In Ukraine Courtesy Of The United Kingdom
Thread of insider comments on Russian military movements...
Something incorrect in that last tweet. Russian-Belorussian exercises are scheduled to run until Feb 20th. The same day that the Beijing Olympics ends. Another month and the Russians won't have any more forces left to move on the chess board.
That Russian 6 ship convoy from Baltic Fleet is heading south through the English channel (should have cleared it already as I type this). At top speed and using ship to ship refueling it should take them another 3 weeks to reach Sevastopol (or Odessa).
If those six ships are fully loaded, that's 60 top of the (Russian) line main battle tanks and over 2000 highly trained naval infantry (Russian Marines).
I don't think that the Russians will leave them stranded outside of the Black Sea.
Again, that's assuming those ships are even loaded.
Russia has deployed Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile systems and S-400 SAM's to Belarus.
Those are both theater level tactical assets. They aren't there for Ukraine. They're there for NATO.
Russian Pacific Fleet ships that paid a port call to India last week are now in the Persian Gulf, for "exercises" with the Iranian Navy.
Don't know if they mean the actual Iranian Navy or the IRGC's speedboat fleet, or both.
"Some European nations worried that punishing Russia with deep sanctions over Ukraine could cause Putin to cut off gas supplies in middle of winter. Biden officials seeking help from Qatar, leading LNG exporter in world..."
-Bloomberg
"Some" would be Germany.
Has nobody told the Biden admin that Qatar is aligned with Iran who is aligned with Russia?
It's official now.
State Department orders families of U.S. embassy personnel in Ukraine to begin evacuating the country as soon as Monday.
Russian Army 3rd wave units are pouring into the border region. So many that they're jamming up the depots and parking areas.
All of the border region airports and air force bases are packed with fighters and fighter-bombers.
Russian combat engineering, heavy artillery, command and control, and some tank battalion units are still backed up on the Trans-Siberian Railway as far east as Chita, and still moving west.
Elite 4th Guards Tank and 2nd Guards Motor Rifle divisions are now located around Voronezh. This puts the bulk of 1st Guards Tank Army in and behind 20th Guards Combined Arms Army. 1st Guards Tank's two independent brigades are both in Belarus.
A live fire Russian naval exercise has been scheduled inside the Irish EEZ.
This is *not* the six landing ships from the Baltic Fleet. Those are still making their way around the Spanish coast.
What's interesting is that this exercise box is 170 nautical miles off the south coast of Ireland.
Incidentally, so was a suspicious Russian trawler suspected of deploying submersibles back in July 2021 170nm away.
There are a number of undersea cables in that area...
Speculation is that the Russians will use the area to launch long range Kaliber cruise missiles at Ukraine.
They could very well do so, but the speculators aren't mentioning that those missiles would have to overfly all of western (NATO) Europe to reach that destination.
About those Russian ships visiting Iran. They are not alone.
There is at least one Chinese Type 52D destroyer with them. Making the combined force a very capable little surface action group.
Photo from the Russian-Iranian-Chinese CHIRU 2022 naval exercise in the Arabian Sea
1,000 to 5,000. (That's SOCOM and the 75th Ranger Regiment).
Tenfold (that's 82nd ABN up to 1st US Army w/ five infantry brigades, 2 armored brigades, and 1 aviation brigade)
Hope they alerted the Pentagon before this press release. Because tenfold isn't close to ready and would require a matter of weeks just to get ready to transfer to shipping ports that may or may not have enough ships ready to take them on the 2 week journey across the Atlantic...
US forces already in Europe include the 2nd Cav Regiment with 4 squadrons equipped with Stryker wheeled APC's in Germany.
And
The 173rd ABN Brigade with 2 ABN battalions and 1 National Guard battalion in Italy.
That's it.
and 19hrs later...
Breaking News: Members of Fort Bragg's 82nd Airborne Division alerted for deployment to Europe over next 72 hours in response to possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Report says 8500 troops from 82nd ABN. That's more than one brigade but less than two of 82nd's three brigades.
If more troops are called up after the 82nd ABN they will come from the 101st ABN and 10th MTN divisions, in whichever order their brigades can be ready quickest.
USAF transferring additional ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) assets to Europe.
JSTARS and AWACS.
T-80U tank company from the 4th Tank Division at the Maslovka train station in Voronezh.
US adds eight Marines to embassy security detail in Ukraine.
That'll show 'em.
All of Russian 1st Guards tank Army is now in Belarus, around Gomel, north of Kiev. Most of 41st CAA is with it.
Russian 155th Naval Infantry brigade finally reached its destination. It's in Brest, Belarus on the Polish border and far from any water. Long trip from Vladivostok on the Pacific coast.
That headline isn't very reassuring. Nor is the seeming lack of movement by brigade level elements of the Ukrainian army.
US 101st ABN has been alerted for possible movement to Europe.
10th Mtn Div will be next on the list.
USAF Air Mobility Command is going to get a workout like they haven't seen in quite a while.
Half of their army embedded deep inside of of the arms of a massive and very obvious pincer movement.
The other half on the wrong borders.
The dictator of Turkey made a statement that he would be honoring his nations commitment to NATO if there is a war with Russia. Extra large grain of salt here, but the Turks were never happy with Russia dominating the northern half of the Black Sea.
If he's not lying (again) that puts part of the Russian Black Sea fleet, all of the Russians in Syria, and that task force of Russian Naval Infantry from the Baltic Sea on the wrong side of the Bosporus Straight.
The official unofficial leak to US press is that the Russians have 60 battalion tactical groups on Ukraine's borders.
*checks notes*
That was two weeks ago, they 70+ BTG's on the border now, another dozen on the way, and at least ten ABN BTG's still available.
45th Guards Spetsnaz Brigade has arrived in Belarus. They're roughly equal to US Green Berets.
Thinking about that article about Ukraine signing up large numbers of civilians for reserve duty. And the seeming lack of movement of the Ukrainian regular army.
I'm thinking that the Ukrainian high command doesn't expect their regulars to last long in a stand up fight against the Big Red Machine. And they're probably right...
Troops put on alert for possible Ukraine related deployment include elements of
82ndABNDiv
18airbornecorps
4thInfDiv
2INFDIV
101stAASLTDIV
3rd_Infantry
1stCavalryDiv
JRTCandFortPolk
WrightPattAFB
RobinsAFB_GA
Per PentagonPresSec.
For clarification -
18th ABN Corp includes 82nd ABN Div, 101st ABN Div, and 3rd Inf Div. It also includes 10th Mtn Div (not sure why they weren't included in the alert).
2nd Inf Div is short one of its 3 brigades (stationed in S Korea), and is a light mech division with Stryker wheeled APC's.
1st Cav Div is a heavy combined arms division with 3 armored brigades. They aren't going to arrive in Europe any time before the end of February.
...
Wright Patterson is a transport base housing C-17's.
Robins has E-8 JSTARS recon aircraft.
@buzzkill58 One squadron of USAF Reserves C-17's.