@TubunMuzuru
You asked me yesterday if I have any predictions on what Putin may do next.
I gave it a thought.
I think his main efforts will now involve #Moldova.
#Russia will attempt to:
- overthrow the government to install a pro-Russian puppet regime;
and if that doesn't work
- seize the airport to deploy troops to overthrow the government and install a pro-Russian regime.
The ultimate goal would be to open the Western front by unblocking Russian troops in Transnistria along the way.
@TubunMuzuru
Here's why I think so:
- A Russian army is blocked in Moldova's Transnistria (has been for 25 years) which sits on a huge stockpile of weapons and ammo;
- Freeing up those troops, weapons and ammo is possible either by defeating #Ukraine Armed Forces in South of Ukraine and occupying lands adjacent to Transnistria, or by going through Moldova.
- Getting there through Ukraine looks quite impossible.
- Getting there through Moldova may be possible.
Moldova has been experiencing a series of anti-Government demonstrations led by pro-Russian parties and financed by Russia. If a coup is successful, then the new puppet regime will simply open all access to #Russia military. Local men will be conscripted along with men from Transnistria and sent to the frontlines with Russian troops following behind. This would open a Western front vs #Ukraine and solve a huge logistics problem by diverting large numbers of troops through it.
@TubunMuzuru
If a coup is unsuccessful, they may try to capture the airport.
That would give sense to their incessant reports of "#Ukraine's plans to attack Transnistria!" -- they hope to create a panic, get people to free to Moldova, overwhelm border control points and smuggle armed groups of militants into Moldova from Transnistria.
There remains a question of how to get war planes into Moldova, as it's ether over Romanian or Ukrainian skies. Ukraine will surely intercept all planes. But...
@TubunMuzuru
.. But would Romania do the same?
What if Russia blatantly violates Romanian skies to get their warplanes into Moldova, will they "express concern" on the diplomatic level?
What would be the consequences for #Russia for violating NATO airspace? I really don't know. Forecasts would be meaningful had Russia been ruled by someone sane. But it's not.
They may just believe that NATO will simply hush it down.
Next: A quick conquest of #Moldova and opening a Western front vs Ukraine.
@TubunMuzuru
Anyway, I was just at ease in a major way.
I shared these thoughts with friends in #Ukraine, and their response to this was "Don't underestimate #Romania. 70% of missiles coming in from the South are shot down by Romania, but we say it's our work. Romania will surely intercept planes from Russia and simply say it was Ukraine. We won't deny."