NATO – OSINT – MAPPING
Last week the Pentagon released a pic showing General Miley looking at a big screen monitor with a map of combat units in Ukraine on it. Right away the OSINT mapping community noticed that it was one of their open source maps. And that is exactly why the Pentagon used that map, because it is open source and showed no classified information. The Pentagon has much better unit location maps than open source can provide but they aren't going to show those to you or I.
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Southern Front
Ukrainians retain momentum, still slowly advancing in at least three locations. This despite the Ukrainians not reinforcing their attack by 128th Mountain brigade at the western end of the Southern front and the Russians committing two “elite” airborne divisions south of and around the growing Ukrainian held Robotyne bulge.
East of Robotyne the Ukrainian Marine Corp (plus friends) continue to widen their bulge into the Russian defenses.
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Eastern Front
Ukrainians retain momentum around Bakhmut advancing slowly both north and south of the city. Numerous probes and spoiling attacks by the Russians in other areas all along the Eastern front straining Ukrainian resources and in at least one location a Ukrainian counter attack took some previously Russian held territory.
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Platoon/Squad combat levels – Reasons
Based on the soda straw view of the videos that I've seen so far this Spring and Summer, most advances by both sides involve small units, usually platoon or squad based battle groups built around one or two tanks and two to four APC's.
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There is good reason to believe that this is the case for most of the fighting since June. The eyes in the sky (drones) are everywhere from both sides. Any group larger than a single squad that is seen is going to draw artillery fire. Large scale attacks by each side since last Winter have been repeatedly broken up by massed artillery fire.
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Commitment levels
I see three Rifle brigades, a Jager brigade, one Mech brigade, possibly a new Tank brigade, and about a half dozen to a dozen or more independent infantry battalions remaining uncommitted by the Ukrainians.
The Russians have very clearly massed pretty much everything that they appear to have available on the Southern front in front of and around the two large Ukrainian advances, and continue to lose troops, vehicles, and most importantly ground.
EoF
