I used to do these every week to ten days at bird app, so consider this the opening of these.
First off, regarding Kherson.
It’s not clear where we are precisely. Flags are off. Russians seem to be taking anything not bolted to the ground
This tells me they are ultimately leave the city. Whether they will hold to the rest of the oblast is a good question. They are setting a defense in depth to try.
Zaporizhia may have to wait until the spring. Winter will have some issues. The east shows some progress. Yesterday a video appeared of Ukraine forces in Bakhmut.
Now to the Russian army
The Turbo patriots, to use the Russian term, get it
Now danger will Robinson, Prighozhin is strengthening his position, including militia units. We may be seeing the very early stages of an internal civil war. It’s in my bingo card, but time.
Finally, there are rumors Putin is not running for president. Today we got more than just rumor, that Dmitry Patrushev might succeed Putin. This is big, because we may be heading to a February 1917 style revolution.
History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.
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@Nadinbrzezinski I read this earlier today, and he was doing some stuff in St. Petersburg on their National Day or whatever the 11/4 holiday is that seemed to be a very near challenge to Putin. I think Russia ends up in a civil conflict by the spring.
@Nadinbrzezinski I think that there will be a pause for the ground to harden. During that UA will be smacking logistics. ru will be getting cold and hungry, and since they won't be able to cover their heat, they'll be slammed by arty. Once they're soft enough, UA will push down to Melitopol, and then close the jaws on them. Sequencing of course depends (Luhansk might be a softer target, or they might decide to cut at Mariupol), but winter will be ZSU's time to shine.
They are having some riots in proper Russia. Whether these are more like protests or riots, depends. It’s an issue of training and supply. But Russia still believes a large army can overcome better weapons, and a NATO standard army