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Good Lord. Thomas Miller, the data scientist who a month ago predicted a Harris landslide, is now predicting a narrow Trump win in the EC. Any model that swingy is, well, useless.
@elbutterfield Yeah, I'll stick with him. This guy has only one election under his belt, 2020.
@elbutterfield And, again, this guy's model went from a Trump landslide, to a Harris landslide, to a Trump slim lead. I mean. Whiplash.
@LiberalLibrarian Lichtman's system is fascinating. Not based on polls or the over/under, but on "keys".
@elbutterfield Miller's system is based largely on prediction markets. So, yeah.
@elbutterfield In the end, it's all haruspices.
@LiberalLibrarian Yes, I am throwing entrails as we speak.
@LiberalLibrarian Alan Lichtman, the analyst who has correctly predicted the last 9 out of 10, says Harris will win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_4NzsWT3LA