@arthurpendragon On MorningJoe, he said he went out to listen to the voters to see if anything has changed. It has not. People support him. Period.
Biden lost more than 2% of the voters after his catastrophic debate performance according to 538. Can you really guarantee that Biden is going to recover and go on to win this election?
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@MarceloPaezPereda @arthurpendragon I am a statistician with 30+ yrs experience. Survey result varies widely by sample. It needs to adequately reflect the population, eg actual voters. It is hard to do, especially in an atypical year. The margin of error does not reflect the error in constructing the sample. Worse yet, there are alternative fact political pollsters like Kellyanne Conway.
@LadyIDO I'm sure the team of experienced statisticians at 538 consider and try to correct for these potential problems. I'm a molecular biologist with 25 years of experience in research, including statistics so, I also know what we are talking about. The poll results look bad for Biden and I don't see any sign that they will improve. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/