This is not grounded in anything other than my own cynicism ..
I watched the footage of the shooting and the interviews after, and the video of the counter sharpshooter on the roof who managed to shoot the gunman.
I am also aware that Trump had been relatively on the quiet side post debate.
Watching the interviews and reading some articles there are a few things..
1/
1. Trump was rattled but not enough to keep his head protected. SS tried to keep him down, but he nearly knocked the female SS agent in the front when he was determined to stand up and get his arm pump in the air.
2. I thought an AR-15 had a louder sound.
3. How did Crooks get on the roof of an adjacent building?
4. I thought an AR-15 fired many more rounds than that in a short time frame.
I would amend your theory to add kid was to shoot up the area without shooting people but he had no training.
Nothing really surprises me anymore.