Typed to the sound of fireworks...
As always please try to hold all questions until thread end (EoT). (To help me not screw up the thread order).
Over the last week Ukraine's counter-offensive has coalesced around six locations. The three locations on the southern front drawing a lot of attention.
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If the Russians withdraw from this location to the first line of entrenchments (visible by satellite) it will expose the left flank of Russian units defending east of them. Possibly precipitating a general withdrawal of those units and entire Russian Southern front to that first line of entrenchments. But I'm not sure if the Ukrainians have a follow force in this area to exploit such a withdrawal.
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2: Robotyne sector. Scene of last weeks aborted attack by Ukrainian 47th and 33rd Mechanized brigades. While those two brigades pulled back to lick their wounds they were replaced by the veteran 65th Mech brigade and its attached and equally veteran Da Vinci's Wolves Mech battalion. Those two units were able to retain the battlefield where 47th and 33rd lost so many vehicles. This prevented the Russians from capturing any of the disabled Ukrainian vehicles (that I know of).
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47th Mech has returned to the line and alongside of the 65th is pushing south again. It appears as though they have since managed to recover all or most of the disabled vehicles.
There have been further Ukrainian advances just east of this sector, but I'm unsure of the units involved or if they were entirely successful.
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3: Makarivka sector. Ukrainians continuing slow southward advance on a broad front ranging from Novodarivka to east of Makarivka. The sheer number and type of Ukrainian units in this sector leads me to believe that it is a major effort. All Russian units in the front here are regular army but they appear to be outnumbered by about 3 to 1 and have been taking a beating for over a month now. Russians appear to be attempting a slow leapfrog withdrawal from contact to the first line of entrenchments
The Russian slow withdrawals without breaking contact and lack of available reserves may leave them without enough troops to fully man the first line of entrenchments. This is of course why there is a second line of entrenchments, which may also be undermanned for the same reasons. Behind that line are three large 360 degree fortified areas. Those appear to be planned as last stand redoubts.
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One of those is at Tokmak (the end of the logistics line from Crimea) and encircles the entire city. East of that another fortified area is located around the town of Ocheretuvate. The remaining large fortified area is around the town of Produktovy and is tied into both the 1st and 2nd lines of defense.
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Shifting to the Eastern front.
1: Donetsk. North of Vodyne (NW of the bombed out Donetsk airport). Ukrainian 36th Marine brigade and the newly formed 142nd Rifle Brigade have retaken land held by the Russians since 2014. All of the “Russian” units that are facing them are ex-DPR units absorbed into the Russian army or recently raised Russian Territorial regiments.
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2: Bakhmut south. Ukrainian 28th Mechanized brigade pushed the Russians across the old canal west of Andrivka in several places. Further north 3rd Assault brigade crossed the old canal and are holding ground on the eastern side of the canal. Almost continuous small attacks and probes all along the line north of Bakhmut to the Kreminna forest where shelling and counter shelling by both sides continues.
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3: Kreminna forest area: Intensive shelling by both sides.
Both sides seem to be building up forces here. Brief Russian attack on a narrow front north of Kreminna forest stopped by a swarm of light anti-tank drones.
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Newly formed Ukrainian 32nd Mechanized brigade moved into the line west of Svatove and south of the elite Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized brigade. New Ukrainian 88th Mechanized brigade may have moved into the line north of the 92nd. The northern end of the Eastern front from Kreminna forest up to the Oskil river bridge at Lyman Druhyi is probably the strongest of all Russian troop concentrations and I don't think that the Ukrainians are contemplating an attack here.
EoT
@Render Thank you.
@Render This obviously reflects many, many hours of diligent work.
Thank you. o7
A smile crept across my face. @phase2 is the kind of person who would never claim credit, but it is due.
The dynamic duo. 😎
Okay question: “Shelling.” What does this include? Gunfire? missiles? Trench warfare? And is there a typical range for this term? It was used today to refer to 3 Ukrainians killed and 17 injured. Was that a bomb? I have looked for an answer to this question. I have not found consistency. Is it just a very broad term?
The term "shelling" is used to describe repeated fire from gun, mortar, and/or unguided rocket artillery. The ranges are generally 27 miles or less.
Guided missiles (no matter how poorly guided) are a different category altogether. Also does not include air launched attacks of any type.
If this (west of Donetsk city) is what you're talking about, then yes, that was artillery shelling.
@Render @CajunBlueAZ1 @kel @phase2 When he says “gun” he means large caliber. You’d say “Howitzer” or some such.
@Boyceaz @CajunBlueAZ1 @kel @phase2
Not necessarily.
Both Ukraine and Russia are using light anti-aircraft (57mm down to 23mm) guns for short range indirect fire support. 40mm automatic grenade launchers have ranges from 1750 to 2000 meters and are often used for even shorter and lighter shelling.
@Render @CajunBlueAZ1 @kel @phase2 Well, sure but when most of us say “gun” we mean 9 mm ish. I’m trying to tell CB that “shelling” doesn’t mean hand held weapons. Although I suppose 23 mm might be hand held. Wouldn’t expect to call that “shelling” then though?
@Boyceaz That is very true, and one of the many places where modern journalism has failed mightily.
FTR: Russia does have a 23mm shotgun (of course they do) and it does fire shells. Called the KS-23, it's used by their police and prison guards for riot control.
@Render I was disappointed to see the 47th lose so many vehicles. Do we now know what happened there and why?
@mikeharmanos As I mentioned at the time they advanced in broad daylight in seven or eight long thin and widely spaced columns following groups of 3 or 4 minesweeper vehicles. At one point one of those columns turned west within ATGM range and drove a couple of miles parallel to the Russian defenses. Which is a really bad plan.
Most of the losses appear to have come from mines. The remainder to ATGM's and at least one Ka-52 gunship strike.
@Render Thanks - I likely didn’t catch it at the time.
@Render
Do you think, if the Russian troops are pushed to the last stand redoubts in the Makarivka sector, the troops would surrender against any orders to continue to fight?
Much will depend on the condition, morale, and number of troops who end up manning those positions.
There aren't that many Putin fanatics or commissars available to enforce Putin's edicts.
And there aren't any Kadyrov Chechens available to play blocking force in that sector.
We're already seeing platoon and company sized Russian elements retreating without orders or surrendering when surrounded.
@Render This is precisely the situation where the Abrams/ Bradley hunter-killer tagteam would be absolutely invaluable.
@Render Wait … I need something to snack on to catch up on all this 🤣 Thank you 🥰
@Render just caught up with your #Ukraine update.
Please pass my thanks on to Phase and #doberwaffen for supporting you during this set of military manoeuvres.
1: At the western end of the Southern front, anchored on the east bank of the Dnieper river, Ukrainian 128th Mountain Assault brigade and friends continue to make slow headway southwards. One of the two Russian regular army regiments facing them has withdrawn, leaving a single regiment and a BARS volunteer battalion holding the line. There are two other Russian regiments and three independent battalions further south, but like the BARS unit, they are all of very dubious quality and size.
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