Now let's look at performance by sector. Communications Services and tech are leading the way higher. #CoSoFinance

Stock performance by market cap through Monday. Small caps are underperforming as money positions in the better known names. #CoSoFinance

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists maintaining the famed Doomsday Clock forwarded the clock's hands to ninety seconds before midnight – the closest it's ever been to midnight and Armageddon in its entire seventy-six year history.

Money appears to be flowing out of U.S. Treasuries and into #gold. #CoSoFinance https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/us-global-investors-stock-financial-markets-3837842c

Buh-bye, rate hike expectations. Hello, rate cuts. Why? Because more bank failures would be deflationary, and now both Deutsche Bank and First Republic are under scruitiny. Also, see my earlier post about $1.7 trillion in unrealized losses on bank books. #CoSoFinance

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC): there were $620 billion of unrealized losses sitting on U.S. bank balance sheets in early March. The figure may be understated, with 2 recent estimates saying the losses could be as much as $1.7 trillion. #CoSoFinance https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en-us/posts/investigation-fraud-and-risk/us-banks-problems/

Waiting on copper to break its recent downtrend #CoSoFinance

My take on the brewing crisis in real estate, and how that could be more bad news for banks. https://weissratings.com/en/weiss-ratings-daily/the-next-crisis-comes-home-to-roost
#CoSoFinance

Some charts on the housing market. https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/21/home-prices-drop-year-over-year-first-time-since-housing-bust-1-sales-bounce-from-deep-dismal-to-just-dismal/

The next shoe to drop could be the real estate bubble. And if it happened, such an event would hammer already weakened banks. #CoSoFinance

The question for the Fed this week isn't whether to hike 25bp or 50bp on Wednesday. It's when do they start cutting rates, at least according to fed funds futures, which have priced out rate cuts and priced in rate cuts as soon as June. #CoSoFinance

Bloomberg's Financial Conditions Index went from loose (green) to the tightest since Mar 2020. Gives the Fed an excuse to pause rate hikes on Wednesday if it wants to. On the other hand, I'm worried the Fed is too fixated on inflation to care. #CoSoFinance

Value is starting to underperform growth (again!) as the market figures the Fed is done tightening and will start cutting rates as soon as June! Using the Russell 1000 Value Index (#IWD) and Russell 1000 Growth (#IWF) here. Watch support.

Barrons has an EXTREMELY bearish story on oil today, saying $40 is a potential target. https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/oil-price-per-barrel-opec-economy-5b1df0af

If gold miners as tracked by the GDX close at current levels, we'll have a spinning top, indicating indecision. Not surprising because #gold is waiting to hear what the Fed has to say. See you Wednesday #CoSoFinance

I know people are feeling more bullish, but consider: The S&P 500 is under its short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term trends. Friday's bearish volume was a flood. I'll wait and see the market's reaction to the Fed announcement on Wednesday before making any new moves. #CoSoFinance