Yeah, but: "Even after a 3.5% decline in new-lease rents since last summer, rents in many cities remain 20% or 30% higher than they were when the pandemic began. Rents in the Tucson, Ariz., Tampa, Fla., and Miami metros are all 35% higher than in March 2020." #rent #housing #inflation https://www.wsj.com/articles/apartment-rents-fall-as-crush-of-new-supply-hits-market-2403c6ea

We went to the Lake Worth street painting festival yesterday. I love this kind of art

In the energy complex, West Texas intermediate #crude #oil -- the U.S. benchmark -- had another sideways week last week. #NatGas meanwhile, tried to rally last week. We'd need to see follow-through on higher volume to believe that. #CoSoFinance

With the U.S. dollar rallying, #gold sits on the opposite end of the seesaw of pain. #CoSoFinance

US Dollar Index continues to rally as market ratchets up expectations for more Fed rate hikes. #CoSoFinance

The week before last, it looked like #copper bounced from support. Last week, it came down to test and potentially break support. The saving grace is volume was low. We'll see how this week goes. #CoSoFinance

I'm going to take a wild guess and say the "ambiguous" part of this inflation is companies raising prices just because they can. #CoSofinance #inflation source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/confused-about-whats-causing-inflation-this-metric-shows-whats-driving-the-price-rise-dabc48e4

Bottom line on all this #inflation/PCe stuff I'm posting. The Fed, by its own measures, is still behind the curve. The next interest rate hike will likely be 50 basis points (the market prefers 25) and the forecast range of where rates will top out will move higher. #CoSoFinance

From Mike Konzal: It's not just that goods had a big positive number, it's that the PCE non-housing services, the specific number the Fed is watching, had a big hit on the positive side and hasn't been slowing. #CoSoFinance #inflation #economy

The core personal-consumption expenditures price index, also known as the core PCE deflator, rose 4.7% year over year in January, up from 4.4% in December and higher than the 4.3% growth economists surveyed by FactSet had expected. The increase in core PCE for December, initially reported as 4.4%, was revised to 4.6%, showing price growth at the end of last year was hotter than previously thought.
Headline y/y 5.4% vs 5%
Consumer spending 1.8% vs 1.4%
Personal income 0.6% vs 1% #CoSoFinance

The Biden boom continues.
U.S. Jobless claims declined 3k to 192k (200k est)
Continuing claims dropped 37k to 1,654k (1,700 est)
On the downside, the Fed hates the strong jobs market. This news gives it no reason to stop hiking its benchmark interest rate. #CoSoFinance

"Shared Sacrifices"

All eyes on Federal Reserve rate hikes: The market continues to price in higher probability of higher for longer Fed rate hikes. As long as this happens, we can expect stocks to sell off. Next inflation hints/data: We get the February Fed minutes on Wednesday and January core PCE on Friday. #CoSoFinance

Here's a weekly chart of the $SPX, and I've put black arrows showing the previous two sell-offs (of about 20%) and what the bears are expecting now, as the market prices in the Fed raising rates to 6+%. Will the Fed do that, or will it moderate? #CoSoFinance

Currently listening: https://youtu.be/GemKqzILV4w #SnowPatrol

We took gains on those Transocean (RIG) calls at the right time. Friday, it sold off, on high volume. Sure, it found support at the 20-day moving average. I'd be a seller, not a buyer.

#Lithium carbonate prices in China sank to 425,500 yuan per tonne, the lowest in 1 year and down nearly 30% from all-time high in November. There is more supply, but global recession fears and the end of Chinese stimulus for battery manufacturers probably weighs more.

Friday's close was pretty bearish for #crude #oil on the daily chart, but the weekly chart shows that West Texas Intermediate crude (the U.S. benchmark) is drifting sideways now after bears ran out of steam.