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The question for the Fed this week isn't whether to hike 25bp or 50bp on Wednesday. It's when do they start cutting rates, at least according to fed funds futures, which have priced out rate cuts and priced in rate cuts as soon as June.

Bloomberg's Financial Conditions Index went from loose (green) to the tightest since Mar 2020. Gives the Fed an excuse to pause rate hikes on Wednesday if it wants to. On the other hand, I'm worried the Fed is too fixated on inflation to care.

Value is starting to underperform growth (again!) as the market figures the Fed is done tightening and will start cutting rates as soon as June! Using the Russell 1000 Value Index () and Russell 1000 Growth () here. Watch support.

If gold miners as tracked by the GDX close at current levels, we'll have a spinning top, indicating indecision. Not surprising because is waiting to hear what the Fed has to say. See you Wednesday

I know people are feeling more bullish, but consider: The S&P 500 is under its short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term trends. Friday's bearish volume was a flood. I'll wait and see the market's reaction to the Fed announcement on Wednesday before making any new moves.

HENDERSONVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — A library director in Tennessee has been fired after the actor and evangelist Kirk Cameron accused him of “unkind pushback” to visiting celebrities during a conservative event last month, officials said.
Sumner County Mayor John Isbell told The Tennessean that the county's library board voted 4-3 on Wednesday to fire Hendersonville library director Allan Morales. The mayor said Morales' termination was “related to the Kirk Cameron event.”


ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkey's president agrees to approve Finland's NATO membership application.

Consumer Sentiment Index from University of Michigan fell in March to 63.4 vs. 67 est. & 67 prior; expectations fell to 61.5 vs. 64.7 prior; current conditions down to 66.4 vs. 70.7 prior. That was the first time in 4 months it fell, and 85% of the survey was completed before the recent banking crisis.

@terebifunhouse Haven't read it, but I'm guessing it's still a better story than "Twilight"

pin your lift ticket to your space suit and get ready to manhunt your way from Vail to the ends of the universe this week at Stupid Comics! misterkitty.org/extras/stupidc

SVB was a fraction of its recent size when the Trump administration and congressional Republicans led a bipartisan effort to roll back banking regulations in 2018, ending automatic annual stress testing for banks smaller than $250 billion in assets.

SVB became the fastest-growing major bank in the nation over the past five years. By this year, it was the country’s 16th largest by assets.

Assets on the Fed's balance sheet increasing $297 billion over the last week, the largest spike higher since March 2020. Thus nearly half of the Quantitative Tightening since last April was undone in a single week. The spike was not due to asset purchases (Treasuries and MBS holdings actually declined) but from a $303 billion increase in "Loans." Part of that was the new Bank Term Funding Program ($12 billion)

More than a fifth of Fox News Channel viewers are less trusting of the cable network in the wake of publicly disclosed text messages and emails from Fox executives and on-air personalities. But only 9% of Fox News viewers say they aren’t watching the network as much as they used to. variety.com/2023/tv/news/fox-n

Monday, thanks to the burgeoning banking crisis, I took gains on double-inverse ETFs in Resource Trader and Supercycle Investor. Yesterday, I took more gains in Resource Trader and added another gold stock. Today, the banking crisis continues, and gold goes higher, and gold stocks along with it. It's a scary market, but manageable.

Today, in the Weiss Ratings Daily, I talk about how the banking crisis is sending gold higher. That's just what we're seeing again today. What comes next? Read the article and find out. weissratings.com/en/weiss-rati

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RealSeanBrodrick

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